Weekly

Long Time Running

2020-07-03

This week is the Super Data Week in the United States. After a number of favorable economic data were announced the day before yesterday, a set of employment data was ushered in again last night. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor,

In June, the number of non-agricultural employment surged by 4.8 million, which was a record high. It not only improved further than May, but also was 60% higher than the market estimate of 3 million.

The main improvement was that the number of employed people from the private sector increased by 4.77 million. The unemployment rate also dropped from 13.3% in May to 11.1% in June, a sharp drop of 2.2%; In addition, 1.43 million people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week.

Slightly better than the last published figure, but worse than expected. However, the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits is even worse, not only worse than expected, but also higher than the 19.23 million announced last week, with the announced figure of 19.29 million.

The newly announced number of non-agricultural employment shows that the unemployment situation in the United States has greatly increased, but whether it can be continuously improved is the challenge. The increase of the unemployment rate this time is due to the outbreak of pneumonia in COVID-19, and the one-day epidemic has not been properly handled.

Employment can't return to the pre-epidemic level! In addition, the number of non-agricultural employed people was counted from the middle of last month to the middle of this month, and the number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits did not decrease significantly last week.

Non-agricultural data may not reflect the fact that the epidemic broke out again in several States last week. In addition, some States in the United States have re-implemented social restrictions and blocked some economic activities, so there is still a long way to go before the employment in the United States can be restored to the full employment level.

US stocks opened higher yesterday, and Dow Jones index pushed up more than 400 points by bright data, but investors took profits and closed up only 92 points to 25,827 points. Oil prices recorded two consecutive rises, and employment data ideally supported the rise in oil prices.

New york oil futures closed at $40.65 per barrel, up 2.1%. The price of gold went up and down in a narrow range in the early part of yesterday. When the market opened, it began to fall from $1,772 to $1,764, with a fluctuation of $8.

Because investors focused on the non-farm payrolls data released last night, the results showed that the data was excellent. The gold price dropped from $1,773 to $1,760, and the highest rose to $1,779, closing at $1,775 per ounce.  

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