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Make good use of risk data

2020-07-02

The number of confirmed cases of pneumonia in Texas and COVID-19, California both hit a single-day high, with a total of 15,300 confirmed cases in the two States. Some experts believe that there is a chance that the number of infected people in the United States will exceed 100,000 every day.

It proves that the health situation in the United States is bad. Although US President Trump has indicated before that he will no longer shut down the economy for the epidemic, it seems to be out of control. If it cannot be solved as soon as possible, it will eventually bring down the economy.

Yesterday, the United States announced a number of important economic data.  First, we announced the record of the last US Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and decided to keep the interest rate at 0.25, which is in line with market expectations.

According to ISM manufacturing data, the manufacturing index rose to 52.6 in June, which was higher than the market forecast of 49.8, and also returned to the expansion level of over 50, indicating that the US manufacturing industry first got out of the haze under the epidemic after restarting the economy.

There are 2.37 million new jobs that are better than the market expectation in the ADP national employment report of the United States. The data shows that the number of employed people has greatly improved, and the improvement of the employed population can boost the American economy.

We should know that the United States is a consumer power, with 50% of its GDP consumed by consumers.  Finally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that crude oil is stored in the U.S. crude oil inventory.

The dramatic decrease of 7.2 million barrels is far lower than the decrease of 700,000 barrels predicted by the market.  Data stimulated oil prices to rise, and new york oil futures closed at $39.82 per barrel, up 1.4. However, all published data were favorable for venture capital.

However, the US stock market developed individually yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which represents the traditional economy, fell by 78 points or 0.3, and the Nasdaq index, which represents the new technology economy, rose by 96 points or 1.
It shows that the epidemic has absolute influence on the traditional economy.  Yesterday, the price of gold hit a new high of $1,789 since 2012, but the lowest price dropped to $1,759, with a fluctuation of $30, closing at $1,769 per ounce.

It is estimated that the market will wait and see, and the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States will be announced early on Thursday.

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