Weekly

June 15 th
 
 
Today's volatility range:
 
Britain's fatigue is repeated. The government decided to delay the lifting of social restrictions for one more month. The pound fell again against the US dollar. The US dollar index was relatively strong. In addition, the expectation of general account was even worse. The gold market took on yesterday's decline.

After a sharp drop of $33, the relative strength index of 1 was super oversold to 13, but it also ushered in a strong rebound of nearly $20, and it was like riding a roller coaster together. The market is worried that runaway inflation will lead the Fed to raise interest rates early.

There are retail sales data and producer price index tonight, and it will be announced tonight whether there is really worse inflation as worried by the market, which will affect the direction of the Fed. Today, the proposed amplitude is 1857-1874.
 

Tomorrow, the US Federal Reserve will decide the interest rate. Before shrinking the table or raising interest rates, Fed officials will tend to focus on whether the employment data continues to improve, more than the growth rate of the pass rate, because they still believe in the current

Inflation is short-lived and has not gone out of control. Try to find out what is wrong with the employment situation in the United States from the research reports of other institutions, and then predict the delisting schedule of the Federal Reserve.

The International Labor Organization under the United Nations published the annual Global Employment and Social Outlook report earlier. The survey pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, the global unemployed population will reach 220 million this year, which is estimated to be global this year

The unemployment rate will reach 6.3%, which is higher than the level of 5.4% before the epidemic. What is more pessimistic is that the ILO predicts that the job market will not fully recover until 2023 at the earliest.

 
Fitch, a rating agency, also evaluated the American labor force, arguing that the employment rate in the United States could not be fully recovered until the fourth quarter of 2022, because it took a long time for workers and employers to find a suitable match.

Especially, it is more difficult for older workers to return to the labor market. Fitch also cited a number of factors that hindered the recovery of the US labor market: First, job seekers' confidence. More than 30% of unemployed workers in the United States have not worked for more than one year.

The numbers are rising. The longer a job seeker is unemployed, the more difficult it is to return to the workplace, and the morale of job seekers is slowly worn away. Secondly, the society has changed rapidly under fatigue, and the former low-skilled jobs may have disappeared forever.

If job seekers fail to learn new skills or successfully transform, they may be eliminated. Then there is the welfare assistance program in the United States. Because the safety program for the unemployed in the United States is relatively loose and generous, the amount of unemployment benefits distributed is higher than that of the market

Temporary workers earn more. In the market, they prefer to apply for assistance rather than go back to work.

 
From the above report, it can be concluded that the employment situation in the United States will not recover before 2022, while the change of social work ecological environment has caused more jobs to disappear, and the unemployment rate in the United States will not return to the level before fatigue. So it is estimated that Fed officials

Before the end of the year, there will only be more discussion voices to express delisting, but the discussion and implementation will not be realized until the second quarter of next year. European and American stock markets have shown individual development, and the German DAX index fell by 0.13%; The CAC index in Paris, France rose by 0.24%;

Britain's FTSE 100 Index rose 0.18%. In the United States, technology stocks led the upward trend, but only Jones index opened higher and closed lower, down 0.25%, Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.19%, and Nasdaq index performed best, up 0.74%. Yesterday's Dragon Boat Festival holiday,

Hong Kong stocks are closed. In the past, many districts of the Dragon Boat Festival held dragon races to win gold medals according to tradition, and citizens also took advantage of the holidays to go out to watch dragon boat races to feel the festive atmosphere. However, due to the Covid-19 epidemic, dragon boat races were cancelled in many districts this year.

Most citizens can't feel the deafening drums of the past and the fierce competition in Qi Fei; However, yesterday's performance of the gold market was not enough, and the degree of stimulation was even worse! The gold market undertook yesterday's decline, and the performance started from the Asian market without water spray

From yesterday's high of $1,878, it plunged into more than $30 to $1,845, and rebounded after the opening of the US market. The rebound strength was also strong, and it was more than 20 US dollars to play. It was like riding a roller coaster together, and finally closed at $1,866, down $12.

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