Gold market analysis

Gold price expected to fluctuate above $4,310 intraday  
September 16, 2026, 10:47 AM  

The market expects a 25-basis-point rate hike tonight with over 90% probability. If implemented, this would mark the first increase since 2023, continuing pressure on gold prices. From the hourly chart, gold remains within a downward trend initiated on September 3 from the $4,510 level. After breaking below the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,298.29) last Friday, gold has shown clear weakness in challenging that moving average, while resistance is gradually forming near $4,310.

Currently, the market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point Fed tightening. Future movements will depend on the Fed’s outlook for the economy, inflation, and employment, as well as Chair Waller’s comments. However, if he continues to avoid expressing a clear stance, traders will likely focus on interpreting limited signals to position themselves accordingly.

This morning, spot gold briefly dipped to $4,275 before recovering steadily and re-crossing above $4,310. Should gold clearly break above the horizontal resistance at $4,318 on the hourly chart, there is a high likelihood of testing the Gann 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410. The key factor will be whether the Fed adopts an aggressive hiking path following any rate increase. Otherwise, $4,210 could serve as strong support, while $4,410 may act as short-term resistance—potentially paving the way for another test of $4,510. For most of the day, gold is expected to trade above $4,310.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.