Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Likely to Experience Repeated Short-Term Declines"  
Completed on 26/8/2026 at 10:38  

After reaching a high of $4,696.98 during early Asian trading yesterday, the spot gold price weakened and spent most of the European session consolidating around the hourly 50-period SMA (currently around $4,645). Following the opening of New York markets, it briefly plunged to $4,605.53 before recovering and gradually regaining ground. In today's early Asian session, it rose further to $4,673.83 but then declined again. On the hourly chart, gold may now be forming a descending wave pattern.

Assuming that the fifth wave ended at yesterday’s high of $4,696.98, we are now likely in an abc corrective phase, with a breakdown below $4,450.82 being a key calculation point. From a technical perspective, a double-top formation is also possible, with $4,605.53 serving as the neckline. A break below this level would target approximately $4,514.08—a figure very close to the second-level TD line projection of about $4,513. Using the first-level TD count, the downside target would be around $4,582.

Conversely, if gold breaks above the TD descending trendline, there is a high probability of a false breakout at this hour (10:00 AM), so any upward move should be measured based on the next hourly breakout. Under such a scenario, the upside target would be around $4,745. However, judging from short-term cyclical patterns, gold likely peaked yesterday, and prices are expected to decline repeatedly over the remainder of the week. The market’s reaction to tonight’s U.S. July PCE data will offer important clues, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium opens on Thursday—making a further breakout higher uncertain.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.