Gold market analysis

Gold price expected to bottom out and rebound today  
July 29, 2026, 11:12 AM  

Gold prices were under pressure for most of yesterday. After falling to a low of $4,011.92 during early trading in New York, spot gold recovered slightly, rising to $4,047.16 before encountering resistance at the 20-day moving average (currently around $4,030), which triggered another decline. This morning, prices tested below yesterday's low, dropping to $4,010.42 before recovering again. Currently, gold is trading above the 20-day SMA. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision tonight, with expectations that the federal funds rate target range will remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Gold prices are likely already priced in this outcome, and the accompanying statement will influence short-term market movements. 

From the Gann Square perspective, the low level touched by gold this morning coincides precisely with a strong support (or strong resistance) at the 90-degree angle. Therefore, a powerful rebound after gold fell to the $4,010 level was almost inevitable—provided we rule out the possibility of a major downward breakout. In practical trading, there is only one scenario where a counter-trend position can be taken before a reversal signal appears in the candlestick pattern: when price has already reached a strong support level. However, I must emphasize that under no circumstances should investors enter the market without setting a stop-loss order beforehand, or immediately upon entry. Assuming gold remains above $4,010, the first resistance level for the rebound would likely be $4,110 (Gann's 135-degree angle), followed by the next strong resistance at $4,210. 

Judging from short-term cyclical trends, the weakest scenario for gold prices is a bottom forming by Friday this week before rebounding, while the best-case scenario would be a bottom today followed by an immediate recovery—this likely relates to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Assuming a bottom has already formed today, a daily rebound target could be set at $4,063.29. Since the previous upward move slightly exceeded 61.8%, indicating strengthening upward momentum, if this current rally also reaches the 61.8% level, gold could climb to $4,075.77. On the other hand, if prices continue to decline, a potential downside target or endpoint could be $3,972.24, at which point a low-buy strategy may be considered. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.