Gold market analysis

Gold prices are expected to rebound in a double-bottom pattern.

2026-06-24

《金价有望呈双底背驰反弹》24/6/2026 10:57 完稿
近日油金价格走势同向，纽约期油已跌至72美元水平，现货金价在昨天纽约市早段高见4144.73美元后反复下跌。油价走弱主要受美伊谈判有进展相关，但有一点对油价将产生极大负面影响的，就是阿曼昨天发布声明指，在遵守国际法和《联合国海洋法公约》、保障海峡自由通行且不收取通行费用的基础上，加上配合美国与伊朗相关谈判所取得的船舶协调，相关航道将按照国际海事组织及阿曼主管机关公布的航行座标运行，计划使用此航道的船舶需事先与国际海事组织进行协调。换言之，运油船可经接近阿曼的水域进出，伊朗若坚持要收费，你认为船公司会选择哪一航道？

从一开始我就说，纽油将会跌返70美元以下。故此，油价与金价的反向关系将会结束，前者可视为通胀之因，后者则为通胀之果，两者走势反向属异常。近日所见，美股三大指数转跌、非美货币兑美元跌破关键心理支持位，而美元兑日圆高见161.93后，日本财务省谓已与美国财政部讨论日圆偏弱的问题，日本单方面干预甚或联合干预行动随时出现，一旦美股大幅下跌，日圆将被市场视为避险货币而走强，同时投资者亦不会相信联储局会在美股大跌的情况下考虑加息，金价亦将受惠而上升。

目前关键点是，金价是否一如预期正在营造大型双底。从日线图观察，现货金价似要下试6月11日的低位4023.96美元，若然跌穿该位，金价将与9RSI形成底背驰，纵未至于即时回升，但亦料会因此而造就严重超卖下的大反弹，尤其4010美元位于江恩90度角，属强力支持位，故暂时判断金价仍可守稳在4000美元以上，日内则以5分钟图50SMA（4089.5）、4090美元及小时图20SMA（4113）为反弹阻力。

以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。


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