Gold market analysis

Gold prices have rebounded as expected. This might be due to Trump's announcement of suspending the plan to launch another military attack on Iran. The market has described this situation as "TACO", but Iran has always been a "TACO". Both sides are merely buying time for themselves and do not want to go to war again. However, as the nuclear issue remains unresolved, the situation will continue to be deadlocked. 

Spot gold prices reached a high of $4,589 in the Asian market this morning and broke through the 50SMA on the hourly chart ($4,559), marking the first time it has returned above this line since it was breached last Thursday. However, it has since gradually declined and is currently holding at the 20SMA ($4,555) level. Gold prices peaked at $4,773.38 on May 11th and have been falling since then, hitting a low of $4,480.79 on Monday before rebounding. The cumulative rebound has approached 38.2% of the previous decline ($4,592.56). If it turns down again from here, it would be a weak rebound, and there is a greater possibility of testing $4,480 again to form a double bottom. 

However, it is still too early to make such a judgment. Firstly, the gold price is expected to gradually rise this week. Secondly, a break above the 50SMA on the hourly chart is a signal for further gains. Thirdly, the 20SMA on the hourly chart is moving up and preparing to break through the 50SMA, and the gold price is also holding between the two moving averages. It is not advisable to be bearish until the 20SMA is clearly broken, or even until the bottom of the dense area yesterday around $4,530. Instead, it is a good time to buy on dips. It is expected that the gold price will rise to around $4,627 or even $4,661 before encountering significant selling pressure, and $4,510 is expected to be a strong support level for the day. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.