Gold market analysis

Gold prices are expected to rise in anticipation of the interest rate decision next week. 12/3/2026 10:19 Finalized

Gold prices have remained in a volatile pattern. From the hourly chart, the spot gold price has gradually formed a balanced upward channel since March 3rd, ranging approximately between 5030 and 5235 US dollars, which is within the two support or resistance levels of the Gann Square - 4960 to 5260 US dollars. The spot gold price dropped sharply at the beginning of the Asian market today, reaching a low of 5126.13 US dollars. It then rebounded but was temporarily constrained by the 20SMA on the hourly chart (5173.6). 

It should be noted that the low point this morning precisely coincides with the 50% retracement level of the biggest increase since September 9th, which is $5,216.94. If the gold price can remain above this level, it is almost certain that it will rise sharply tomorrow and form a recent peak. However, if the gold price continues to fluctuate as it has recently, the possibility of a sharp rise followed by a fall is relatively high. Nevertheless, what investors should pay attention to is whether the gold price can make a major breakthrough and continue to rise, especially as the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next Tuesday. Even if the meeting statement reflects the authorities' concern that the sharp rise in oil prices will push up inflation, the authorities are more concerned about the deterioration of the job market. Therefore, the possibility of a rate cut in the first half of the year remains high. 

Using the Fibonacci extension to measure the movement since March 9th, if the amplitude reaches 100%, the gold price will rise to $5,349.54, which is extremely close to the 3-wave upward target of around $5,354 previously estimated by the wave theory. If the gold price rises above $5,350 in the short term, it is advisable to take the opportunity to lock in profits from good positions. The key support levels for the day are expected to be $5,127 and $5,100. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.