Gold market analysis

Gold price breaks through $5,200 with cautious optimism. 11/3/2026 10:29 Completed

Gold price rose above $5,200 as expected. The spot gold price reached a high of $5,238.64 in the morning session of New York yesterday. Although it plunged to a low of $5,160.63 in the early afternoon session of New York, it gradually recovered. Therefore, it is believed that the decline was triggered by profit-taking. Although the spot gold price only reached a high of $5,223.1 in the early Asian session today, it still held above the 20SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $5,196). If it continues to stabilize above $5,200 and consolidate sideways, it will be regarded as a typical consolidation pattern after breaking through resistance. The market is likely to rise further in the future. 

Looking at the hourly chart again, yesterday's high approached the 100% Fibonacci extension level at $5,224.99, so the initial upward target has been reached. A short-term correction may occur. If the gold price clearly breaks below the 20SMA on the hourly chart, it is likely to test the 50SMA (currently around $5,147) before rebounding. The 38.2% retracement target of the largest increase since September 9 is at $5,153.3, which is close to the 50SMA. If the gold price rebounds strongly when it approaches this level, it indicates that the upward trend remains strong. Conversely, if the gold price breaks below the 50SMA or tests $5,126.94 and there is no strong counterattack from buyers, the possibility of testing $5,000 again increases. 

From the perspective of Gann's Square, the current gold price is still fluctuating within the range of $5,110 (weak support) to $5,260 (strong resistance). The 50% and 61.8% correction targets of the largest increase since September 9th are at $5,126.94 and $5,100.57 respectively. The support level of the Gann's Square mentioned above is precisely between the two. Investors should pay attention to whether there is strong support when the gold price drops to this level. From the short-term cyclical trend, this Friday will be a turning point for the gold price. If the price is at a high level on that day, such as $5,260, $5,310, or even higher, the probability of the gold price peaking on that day is very high. Conversely, if the gold price is clearly at a low level, such as $5,100, or even drops back to around $5,000, the probability of the gold price bottoming out on that day is very high. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.