Gold market analysis

"Gold Price May Rebound at $4,510" 16/1/2026 10:34 Completed 

Gold prices failed to reach a new high in New York yesterday. Spot gold prices repeatedly fell below $4,600 in the early Asian session yesterday, approaching the psychological support level of $4,580. In the early New York session, it once again tested the $4,580 support level. The lowest point of the day was $4,581.2. After the London market closed, it rose as high as $4,624.64, but then dropped sharply. 

This morning, the performance in the Asian market was weak. After reaching a high of $4,621.09, it continued to decline. From this, it can be judged that $4,600 is no longer a strong support. From the hourly chart, the spot gold price has been consolidating in a sideways pattern at a high level, and is likely to gradually transform into a round top pattern, indicating that the gold price is preparing to enter a correction phase. Within the day, it is expected to break through $4,580 and test $4,560, or even $4,510, before a rebound is possible. 

Silver prices plunged after hitting a record high of $93.7 in the early Asian session yesterday. They dropped as low as $86.29 before rebounding continuously. In the late New York session, they rose as high as $93.04 but then fell again. Technically, a double top formation emerged, with $86.29 serving as the neckline support. If this level is breached, the measured decline target for silver prices would be $78.88. 

Investors should note that from the monthly chart, the 9RSI of gold and silver prices are currently at 96.8 and 96.4 respectively, which is the most overbought period in history. Even if it does not lead to a long-term decline, occasional major correction waves could reach several hundred dollars. I believe that the significant rise in silver prices is mainly due to the fact that silver has lagged far behind gold in the past few years, while gold has continued to strengthen. Some market analysts attribute this to the process of de-dollarization, but I think the most important factor is that major economies are expected to enter another interest rate cut cycle in 2024, leading to an abundance of market funds. Most of these funds flow into the stock market, and the profits generated from rising stock prices are equivalent to a substantial increase in the money supply. Some of this money then shifts to other financial markets. Under the pretext of unstable geopolitical situations and de-dollarization, precious metals naturally become the target of capital inflows. I believe that in the second half of this year, the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve after the change of leadership and the interest rate trends it promotes will have a significant impact on the prices of gold and silver. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.