Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Expected to Be Pressured by ADP Data" 6/1/2026 11:01 Finalized 

The gold price trend yesterday was generally characterized by a fluctuating upward pattern. A significant adjustment occurred during the European midday session to the early New York session. The spot gold price reached a high of $4,440 before dropping significantly, but it rebounded after hitting a low of $4,395.8 and climbed to a new intraday high of $4,455.82. This was coinciding with the release of the latest US ISM manufacturing PMI, which dropped from 48.2 in November to 47.9 in December, indicating that the US manufacturing sector has been contracting for the tenth consecutive month. The rise in gold prices is believed to be driven by the decline in interest rates rather than any connection with Venezuela. 

ADP will release the December private sector employment change in jobs tomorrow. The market expects an increase of 67,000 jobs. The US Department of Labor will release the December non-farm payroll report this Friday. The market expects an increase of 57,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to drop by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%. Assuming that the number of jobs in the US is still increasing, but the monthly growth rate is clearly less than 100,000, fortunately, there has been no consecutive two-month decline yet. However, if it happens, it will surely intensify investors' concerns about the US economic outlook, and the gold price may rise sharply again as a result. 

It is not advisable to place heavy bets on a rebound trend. 

This morning, the spot gold price rose to a high of $4,461.25 before falling sharply. After breaking through $4,449, it rebounded and has stabilized above $4,450 for the time being. The lowest point in the early Asian session was $4,428.25, indicating that the gold price is currently fluctuating within the range of $4,410 to $4,460 on the Gann Square. From the hourly chart, the current gold price has rebounded by more than 61.8% from the largest decline since December 27th. However, the large bearish candle on December 29th still makes me not too optimistic about the future of the gold price. The gold price must break through and hold above $4,550 to have the potential to reach new highs. Otherwise, any rebound at present, even approaching $4,550, should not be bet heavily on by bulls. 

In addition, it is expected that the short-term top of the gold price will occur tomorrow. The low point yesterday was $4,395.8, indicating that the gold price has not yet confirmed that it has held the important support level of $4,410. Therefore, it is necessary to be cautious that the gold price may test this level again after consolidating at a high level within the day. $4,460 is not an important resistance level, while $4,510 is a secondary resistance (or support). Pay attention to whether the gold price will first challenge $4,510 and then make a deeper adjustment. If the short-term top of the gold price occurs tomorrow, the ADP's December employment data is likely to be the main reason for the gold price to fall. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.