Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Sideways Below 4410 in the Short Term" 5/1/2026 10:29 Completed 

Entering the new year, the gold price rose above $4,400 at one point on the first trading day, but eventually dropped sharply to close at $4,330.5. This morning, the gold price rose above the $4,400 level again in the early Asian session, reaching a high of $4,420.2, but it has not been able to hold that position so far. The claim that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by the US military and will appear in court at 12:00 Eastern Time today was just an excuse for the gold price to rise. There is no element of risk aversion involved. This is evident from the fact that the New York crude oil futures price dropped to $56.56 at one point this morning in the Asian session. 

The decline in inflation is not favorable for gold prices. 

The events in Venezuela have also led me to have a new perspective on the gold price, that is, I have doubts about whether it can reach a new high this year. This is because I expect the oil price to fall and it will be difficult to rise above 60 dollars for a long time. I even think that the New York futures oil price will drop to the 30-dollar level, and this is likely to happen within this year. Low oil prices help to lower inflation, which is not good for the gold price. Of course, you may think that the Fed's tendency to further cut interest rates is good for the gold price. But this so-called "benefit" refers to the reduction in the cost of holding gold, not zero cost. However, a low-interest-rate environment is more beneficial to the stock market and the overall economic performance. Do you think large funds or investors will increase their holdings of stocks or buy unproductive gold at high prices? 

In the short term, the gold price will be constrained by the 4410-dollar resistance level of the Gann Square's 270-degree vertical angle next year. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the spot gold price has been in a sideways pattern since it fell below 4400 dollars on December 29th. Although the high of 4220.2 dollars this morning slightly broke through the 50% retracement level of the biggest decline since last week at 4412.48 dollars, it failed to hold above that level. Therefore, 4410 and 4412.48 dollars are still regarded as important short-term resistance levels for now. The gold price hit a low of 4309.87 dollars last Friday, slightly below the 225-degree angle at 4310 dollars. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will fluctuate between 4310 and 4410 dollars in the short term at most. However, the gold price closed almost with a bearish engulfing candle on December 29th, indicating that it has peaked at 4550 dollars. In the future, it is likely to test the 50-day moving average (4201) on the daily chart before a strong rebound is expected. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.