Weekly

Following the trend of gold price retreat in the previous week, gold continued to be under pressure at the beginning of the week, and the price of gold failed to stabilize above 2660. At the beginning of the week, it retreated to a full-week low of 2624. However, the market was very optimistic about the outlook of the gold market. Many major banks raised their gold target prices in their third-quarter reports and fourth-quarter prospects, thinking that any correction was short-lived and limited, as the chart also shows.

Although the upward momentum is slightly weaker than that in the previous three weeks, it can rebound quickly after the retreat. Although it has not stabilized above 2660, it has followed suit and continued to fluctuate around 2650. The focus of the whole week was on the data of the Labor Department of the United States. However, at the beginning of the week, Israel opened fire on the south of Lebanon, and the war was on the verge. Geopolitical winds supported the development of gold prices. On Wednesday, small non-agricultural ADP reported 143,000 people, which was better than expected, limiting the upward trend of gold prices. Investors were optimistic that the performance of the labor market might remain strong. On Friday night, the non-agricultural ADP reported 254,000 people, far exceeding the expected upper limit, and the US dollar rebounded rapidly.

Earlier, the United States cut interest rates by half a percentage point in response to the increased risks in the labor market. The market once hoped that the United States would cut interest rates by 1 percentage point before the end of the year. However, after the release of strong non-agricultural data, the probability of cutting interest rates by 1 percentage point before the end of the year or by half a percentage point in November dropped sharply to near zero, and the opportunity for the Fed to cut interest rates sharply was dashed. The public again disagreed on the process of the Fed's interest rate reduction period, which made the gold price extremely high.

Looking forward to this week, the United States will release inflation data CPI and PPI. After the labor market turns prosperous, whether inflation will become the Fed's policy risk again is also the focus of the market, and it will definitely be watched. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.