Weekly

The U.S. stock market gave investors a good Friday instead of a good Friday before Thursday's long holiday because the U.S. stock market has performed well in the past week, with the S&P 500 index up 12 percent.

The increase in many industries is also bright. However, in novel coronavirus's system of hitting new highs, corporate profits will inevitably be affected. This only reflects investors' over-selling due to panic, rather than the economy returning to normal.

On the other hand, U.S. Democratic Party Sanders announced on April 8 that he would withdraw from the party's presidential nomination war, the withdrawal of the candidate who is more challenging to Trump's presidency.

This reflects that trump's unlimited quantitative easing policy is unshakable. the problem of capital fracture caused by the suspension of enterprises will definitely be solved by the federal reserve, which is also the main reason why the Dow Jones index rose 607 on that day.

Also good for the investment market was the announcement last week by the Federal Reserve of the minutes of the emergency interest rate meeting held on the 15th of last month, showing that policy members expected interest rates to remain close to zero in the foreseeable future.

This shows that the US dollar is still one of the best capital havens. After a sharp rebound from the March low, the valuation has returned to the average level, with the current price-earnings ratio of the index rising to about 18 times, coupled with downward pressure on corporate profits.

At present, U.S. stocks are not cheap and should not expect too much.

The oil price is convenient. Although the market expects the major oil producing countries to reduce their production, although there is a consensus among the oil producing countries on the issue, it is difficult to reach an agreement on the reduction of production in the interests of many countries. The final agreement is to reduce the production of crude oil by 10 million barrels per day starting from May.

The rate of production reduction was lower than the market expectation. Coupled with the fact that global economic activity has almost stopped due to the ravages of the new pneumonia, the demand for oil has been further reduced. Oil prices during the new york period fell by 2.33 US dollars or 9.3%. It is estimated that oil prices may approach the low level this year, providing opportunities for market entry.

In addition to the United States, according to Reuters, major EU member states have also launched a variety of anti-epidemic programs, including 240 billion Euros of loans and 100 billion Euros of employment guarantee funds from the ESM to EU member states.

Under the circumstances that many central banks have implemented helicopter money allocation to save the nation, gold price, as expected last week, has been pumped up to 1683 new resistance level after successfully challenging 1645. However, the upward trend is too rapid and may have to wait for the market high level to digest and consolidate.

Driven by the policy of non-stop banknote printing, gold price will challenge the high of 1703 at the beginning of the year.

The major event worth noting this week is that on April 17, China will announce its GDP for the first quarter, which is relative to the US total retail sales in March (April 15), the number of new housing construction and the number of new first-time jobless claims (April 16), which have definitely fallen.

It turns out that China is the first country to emerge from the epidemic. The scale of the economic attack brought by the virus will be announced first in the world and will have more market reference value.