Weekly

August 13 th
 
Today's volatility range: The price of gold was contended yesterday, and more Fed officials made speeches to support the compressed quantitative easing policy, and predicted to start raising interest rates in 2023. Among them, Kaplan, a hawkish representative,

He said the day before yesterday that the Fed should announce the reduction in September and formally implement it in October. There are more variables in the schedule of the Fed's contraction. Apart from the unstable labor data, inflation seems to peak.

And the COVID-19 epidemic will not go away, which will complicate the bitmap of the next American Market Committee. However, the oversupply of dollars also points to the rationality that the Fed can latch its throat. In the absence of direction,

Although the gold market will still be consolidated, it can't break through 1760 dollars yesterday, so it should be empty today. Today's proposed amplitude is between 1742 and 1758.
 

According to the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong, the provisional population of Hong Kong in mid-2021 was less than 7.4 million. In addition to the natural decrease of 12,000 people, the number of people coming to Hong Kong with one-way permits due to the COVID-19 epidemic.

Compared with the same period of last year, it dropped by 37%. In addition, nearly 90,000 Hong Kong people left Hong Kong during the same period, which was the main reason for the population decline in Hong Kong. The government explained that the net migration covers Hong Kong residents for various purposes such as working and studying.

The movement in and out of Hong Kong cannot be explained. However, population decline naturally harms the labor market and economic structure, so it is impossible for the government not to study and prevent the population from losing. Hong Kong stocks can't rise again after three consecutive days.

Hang Seng Index opened higher and closed lower, down 0.53%. In Europe, the growth of British manufacturing output was worse than expected, and the three major European stock markets developed individually. Among them, the German and French stock markets rose for three consecutive days, up 0.70% and 0.36% respectively

< the german stock market hit a new high, while the British stock market ended its 4-day uptrend, with the FTSE 100 index rising 0.37%.

 
The US Senate passed Biden's $1 trillion cross-party infrastructure draft. Although the draft still needs to be passed by the House of Representatives, the market expects that there will only be noise when the House of Representatives resumes, and the draft will not be pulled down by the Republican Party. Capital construction draft

Stimulate the traditional economic stocks sensitive to economic performance, and the three major indexes of US stocks developed individually. Dow Jones index and S&P 500 index rose and reached new highs, up 0.62% and 0.25% respectively, but Nasdaq index closed lower, down 0.16%.

The number of new jobless claims in the United States fell for three consecutive weeks last week. Investors are more confident that the employment data shows that the US economy is recovering steadily, further pushing up the Wall Street stock market. The Dow Jones and S&P have reached new highs for three consecutive days. Nasdaq index,

It also stabilized after falling for 2 days; Dow Jones index rose 0.04%; The S&P 500 index rose by 0.30%; Nasdaq index rose 0.35%. The annual meeting of global central banks will be held in Jackson City, Wyoming, USA at the end of the month. At the same meeting last year,

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell put forward the "average inflation target", which revealed the Fed's position of allowing inflation to be higher than 2% for some time. At that time, Powell said that if inflation rose above the target level, the Fed would

Take action without hesitation.

The words are still in my ears. Although the inflation rate in the United States has recently leveled off, the annual rate is still over 4.5%. In the past year, I heard the most temporary inflation, but recently more Fed officials made statements to support the compression of quantitative easing policy, and the most intense.

Of course, Kaplan, a hawkish representative, said the day before yesterday that the Fed should announce the reduction in September and formally implement it in October. Will the Fed take advantage of the meeting to reveal the task and the new attitude of monetary policy, especially Powell

It is worth paying attention to. But what is interesting is the liquidity problem; The American media reported that there was a recent upsurge of corporate bond issuance in the United States. In the past Monday and Tuesday alone, a total of 30 tier-one enterprises in the United States issued bonds.

It is the two days with the highest number of issuers since September last year. Together with other subordinated debt issuance, the bond market has absorbed 48 new issuance cases in two days, with a total amount of 36 billion US dollars, which is enough to prove that enterprises expect interest rates to rise and the interest rate of US debt is relatively high.

Make financing and absorb water when it is cheap; Behind the crazy issuance of bonds, the use of reverse repurchase tools by the Federal Reserve surged. Just last night, the amount of repurchase by the Federal Reserve reached a record high of 1.087 trillion US dollars. It shows that there is an oversupply of US dollars.

It is also evidence that the Fed can bolt the water throat.

 
Rising commodity costs and supply bottlenecks are still increasing the inflationary pressure of American companies. In the context of strong demand, tight supply chain and shortage of raw materials, the US producer price index in July recorded the largest since 2010

Year-on-year increase, monthly increase of 1%, and 7.8% compared with the previous year. Producers will eventually pass on the new costs to consumers, which will also constitute inflationary pressure. The price of gold was contended yesterday, and it rose in the early period, reaching a maximum of $1,758.

However, the employment data is ideal, and the producer price index recorded the best performance in the near future, which led to the rebound of the US dollar and the pressure on gold. The lowest price was US$ 1,742, which closed at US$ 1,753 yesterday, up one dollar.

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