Weekly

July 1 ST
 
 
Today's volatility range:
The gold market rebounded yesterday, the US dollar continued to be strong, and the 10-year US Treasury bonds were also sought after. The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds once fell below 1.45%, hitting a new low of more than one week. Although the dollar is moving upwards,

However, the price of gold did not fall but rose, because the yield of national debt declined, and the opportunity cost of holding gold was relatively cheap. However, there was still room for the dollar to rise, and the correlation coefficient between the dollar and gold was negative, and the two were long-term

The chances of both rising at the same time are relatively low. A non-farm payrolls report was released on Friday, and investors may expect digital preference. Today's strategy is still dominated by short positions. Today's proposed amplitude is 1750-1774.
 

The epidemic situation in Hong Kong has gradually stabilized and the retail performance has continued to improve. The Census and Statistics Department announced yesterday that the value of total retail sales in May this year increased by 10.5% over the same month last year, for four consecutive months.

But the increase narrowed from 12.1% last month. However, it is clear that the double-digit growth is due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in February 2020, which pushed the retail industry to the bottom in the following months.

It is related to the sharp drop in the base in the same period last year, rather than reflecting the real performance of the retail industry. In fact, if you look at the previous golden retail locations, such as Mong Kok and Causeway Bay, you still have to use street wisdom.

By inference, we all know that the retail industry has not yet recovered.

 
Hong Kong stocks closed in half a year, and the Hang Seng Index fell for two consecutive days, closing at 28,828 points, down 0.57%. Although the decline was slight, it could not escape the traditional curse of "six unique" in the end, hoping to "turn over seven".

The market is worried that the Delta led by Covid-19 will have an impact on the European economy again, with funds flowing out of European stock markets and the euro falling slightly against the US dollar. The three major indexes of European stock markets fell across the board, and the German DAX index fell 1.02%;

The CAC index in Paris, France fell by 0.97%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.71%. According to the report of the Market Committee of the Federal Reserve, in the last meeting on interest rates, more members tended to raise interest rates earlier, and the US dollar gradually strengthened.

In addition, the employment data released by the city last night was ideal, adding fuel to the fire in the hot exchange rate market! Because the market expects that the non-farm payrolls in the United States will increase by 600,000 in June, although the expected number is less than that in May

978,000 people, but the actual published figure recorded an increase of 692,000 people, which was better than the market expectation. The US dollar index once hit a high level since April 8, rising to 92.448 points and closing at 92.387 points.

 
On the other hand, Federal Reserve Commissioner Waller put on an eagle. He said that he was very optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States and thought that raising interest rates next year was not impossible. He said that there are two preconditions for the Fed to consider raising interest rates next year.

First of all, the unemployment rate must be greatly reduced, or inflation should remain at a very high level. If the situation is right, he does not object to raising interest rates early. Waller also said that as the crisis of the epidemic gradually subsided, the Federal Reserve Bureau

It is appropriate to consider reducing some stimulus measures. First, how and when to start reducing the scale of debt purchase. He also put forward specific figures and methods. The Federal Reserve reduced its debt purchase to 120 billion US dollars per month.

And because the property market is so hot that it doesn't need support from the Federal Reserve, we should first stop buying mortgage-backed securities gradually.

 
The employment data performed well and supported the rise of traditional economic stocks. The three major indexes on Wall Street rose and fell differently yesterday, and the Nasdaq index fell alone, with a loss of 0.15%; The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose for five days in a row and hit a new record closing high.

Up 0.12%; Dow Jones index rose 0.61%. The gold market rebounded yesterday, the price of gold rose to 8 yuan, the US dollar continued to be strong, and even the US 10-year Treasury bonds were also sought after. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bonds once fell below 1.45%.

It hit a new low for more than a week. Although the US dollar went up, the price of gold rose instead of falling, because the yield of national debt declined and the opportunity cost of holding gold was relatively cheap. The price of gold was as high as $1,774 yesterday; Lowest ever seen

1753 dollars, finally rebounded to 1769 dollars to close, up 8 dollars.

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