Weekly

May 31(st)
 
Today's volatility range:

Last Wednesday, the gold market hit the psychological barrier of $1,900 for three consecutive days, and then it was under selling pressure. However, it showed that $1,888 was supported, and the gold price trend was completely dominated by bulls. From the monthly chart,

The price of gold has risen for two months, and the weekly chart has risen for four weeks. The market outlook continues to be optimistic. There are non-agricultural data in the United States this week. It is expected that the figures will continue to be revised downwards. Can we use this data to provide better admission opportunities?

It deserves our close attention. Today, the proposed amplitude is 1888-1912.

On Friday, the United States announced the core personal consumption expenditure index in April, which grew at an annual rate of 3.1%, a record high in the past 30 years, and was also slightly higher than the target figure of 2% or allowed by the Federal Reserve earlier

There is a clear distance above. In contrast, the monthly rate of personal income in the United States last month, although the data was better than expected, it also regressed by 13.1%. Expenditure and income were positive and negative, making life more difficult.

The American people fully understand the present situation of Hong Kong people. Why do incomes fall instead of rising while employment data in the United States are improving? It is estimated that the $1,400 stimulus check of Biden administration began to be sent out in March.

Pushing up personal income in March.

However, the focus of the market is whether inflation is out of control. If the answer is yes, it will force the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than the budget, although they still verbally say that the current inflation is only temporary.

I hope to downplay the pressure of the market, but it is obvious that the speech trend of these Fed officials is changing. Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell claimed that it was too early to talk about "reducing debt buying"; But in the past two weeks alone,

Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that "the Federal Reserve may begin to discuss reducing the scale of debt purchase at the upcoming policy meeting". And Daley, chairman of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, hinted last Tuesday,

"The Fed may start to discuss reducing the scale of bond purchase". Federal Reserve Governor Quarles then hinted on Wednesday that "he is open to reducing debt purchase negotiations". By Thursday, it was the turn of Quarles, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board responsible for banking supervision

According to the latest statement, "if the economy remains strong, it will become important for the authorities to discuss and adjust the pace of debt purchase in the coming months". These remarks undoubtedly contributed to the market's speculation that the Fed would reduce the scale of buying bonds in advance.

The trend of global central banks to lock their throats is gradually increasing. Lee Zhulie, governor of the Bank of South Korea, said last Thursday that it was necessary to prepare for an orderly exit from the unprecedented loose monetary policy. Become the first central bank governor in Asia and make a hawkish statement.

In fact, South Korea's export and investment have been strong in recent years, and the influence of black technology, home appliances and entertainment culture has become the engine of South Korea's domestic and export economic growth, so South Korea has the opportunity to take the lead in delisting early next year.

Is also a normal inference. In the UK, members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England said earlier that if the job market continues to recover, they may consider raising interest rates early next year. If you ask why the debt reduction plan that has been rumored in the market has reached 3% inflation

Still not implemented?

In fact, Fed officials are dumb enough to eat Huang Lian-they know that unlimited quantitative easing means extra money to stimulate the economy. From many aspects, the US stock market, property prices and consumer goods have all recovered.

Even better than the level before the outbreak of the virus pandemic, only another indicator of the Fed's water collection, the job market, still lags behind other economic data, and Powell also pointed out that the US economic recovery is unbalanced, meaning some financial and high-tech

The recovery is very fast, and those who have money to invest also get high returns from the economic recovery process, but they are still in dire straits for the low-income group. Powell once pointed out that the employment situation in the United States is now in a dilemma.

He said that reopening the economy will bring about strong economic activities and create employment opportunities. The Federal Reserve's research report also shows that parents with low education level and office workers suffered a disproportionate blow during the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

There have been millions of jobs with low academic qualifications that have disappeared from the United States forever! It can be seen that the Fed is in trouble! The employment market is also the key data this week, and the non-farm payrolls figures of the United States in May will be released this week, which will greatly affect the investment climate this week.

You can pay close attention. The gold market began to hit the psychological barrier of $1,900 for three consecutive days last Wednesday, but it has generally fallen back to $1,888 and has been accepted. Last week, it rose to a maximum of $1,913, although last Friday due to core personal consumption,

The expenditure index hit a 30-year high, and the price of gold dropped to 1882 US dollars, but then it was successfully above 1900 US dollars. Last Friday, it closed at 1903 US dollars, rising 22 US dollars per week and 7 US dollars per day.

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