Gold market analysis

Gold Price Likely to Reversal and Decline Today – 9/4/2026, 10:38 AM

Yesterday, spot gold prices peaked at $4,511, just one dollar above the upper end of the volatility range I had indicated earlier. Last week, comments by Federal Reserve Chair Waller at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium on inflation and interest rates were interpreted by markets as hawkish, triggering a sharp drop in gold prices. However, after hitting a low of $4,282.71 on Wednesday, gold reversed course within a single day, rising further yesterday to close above the 20-day simple moving average (currently around $4,468). This morning, it has been trading narrowly above that level.

The rapid rise in gold prices appears to have been driven by remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that if inflation continues to moderate steadily, he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the mid-month policy meeting. He noted that the three-month core inflation rate, which the Fed closely monitors, has dropped significantly from 4.76% in February to the current 3.05%, indicating effective control over price pressures. Additionally, tariffs and energy price fluctuations have prevented inflation from spreading widely across the economy. Nevertheless, he emphasized that August's PPI and CPI data will influence his decision. These figures are scheduled for release on September 10 and 11, respectively.

Given that gold prices have already climbed to $4,511 ahead of the August non-farm payroll report, unless employment unexpectedly declines again, the likelihood of gold falling after the data release is very high. On the daily chart, gold has rebounded more than 50% from its August 25 lows and has slightly surpassed the 20-day SMA. Cyclical trends also suggest a reversal today, making it unlikely that gold can sustainably stay above $4,500 in the short term. Conversely, using Fibonacci extension levels, if gold reverses downward again, a 100% extension could push prices down to $4,096.05.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.