Gold market analysis

Gold Price Holds Steady at 4,410, Awaiting an Upward Breakout  
March 9, 2026, 11:04 AM  

As expected, gold prices rebounded, primarily driven by the ADP employment data released last night. The report showed that private-sector job growth in August added only 38,000 positions—below the anticipated 47,000 and slightly revised upward from the previous figure of 44,000 to 46,000. This marked the second-worst monthly performance so far this year. From January to August, the average monthly job gain stood at 68,000. These figures have led markets to expect that tomorrow’s official non-farm payroll report will also show a slowdown in labor market growth, cooling expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

On the hourly chart, spot gold hit its lowest level of the day at $4,282.67 during yesterday’s Asian session before gradually recovering. However, following the release of the ADP data, gold showed little immediate reaction. It wasn’t until 45 minutes later that it surged above the 50-period SMA (currently around $4,366), reaching a high of $4,397.37. After briefly consolidating along the moving average, gold rose again toward the end of the New York session, peaking at $4,391.45.

This morning in Asia, gold continued its upward momentum, pushing higher and setting new intraday highs above $4,425. Technically, gold appears to have stabilized above the 50SMA and is now poised to break through and reestablish support at the Gann 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410. With favorable confirmation from the upcoming non-farm data, gold could target $4,460 and potentially even challenge $4,510 again. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, if gold rebounds by 50% of its largest decline since August 25, it could reach $4,489.82—a key resistance level to watch.

According to the TD line analysis, the projected price target after breaking above the descending trendline is approximately $4,522. Therefore, gold is likely to trade between $4,410 and $4,510 over the next two days. However, should the August non-farm data come in strongly—such as with job gains exceeding 150,000 or even 200,000—$4,410 could once again become a significant resistance level, while $4,210 would face a serious test.

The above information is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.