Gold market analysis

"Gold Needs to Fall to $4,510 for Support" – Completed on 27/8/2026 at 11:09

Yesterday's U.S. data showed that the core PCE inflation rate in July remained unchanged at an annual increase of 3.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month above 3%. The monthly rise also slightly expanded by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%. Overall PCE inflation held steady at a year-on-year gain of 3.7%, the fifth consecutive month exceeding 3%. This figure appears clearly influenced by U.S. military actions against Iran, indicating no signs of cooling inflation. Interest rate futures suggest the market now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December as the most likely outcome, with odds remaining around 45%. Meanwhile, the situation remains uncertain regarding how Powell will respond.

Following the release of the data, gold prices plunged sharply, briefly falling below $4,600 before recovering. However, after reaching a high of $4,633.6, gold reversed again and closed the New York session near $4,583.28—close to yesterday’s first TD level target of $4,582. Nevertheless, this morning in Asian trading, gold opened higher and continued rising, reaching a temporary peak of $4,643.12. It remains clearly constrained by strong resistance at the Gann square angle level of $4,660.

On the hourly chart, using TD analysis, if gold breaks below the TD ascending trendline at approximately $4,585, the next projected downside target would be around $4,462. Conversely, a breakout above the resistance line at about $4,246 could lead to a target of roughly $4,736. Technically, gold is currently positioned near the top of a balanced descending channel. Even if it manages to break upward, there is potential for a double-top formation with previous highs. Moreover, even if Powell does not deliver dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium (which is unlikely), gold lacks sufficient justification for a significant upward move. In the short term, gold is expected to remain capped by $4,660, with $4,510 still viewed as a key support level.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.