Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Correction Wave May Test 4,450 USD" – Completed on August 24, 2026, 11:11 AM

The impact of the U.S. Treasury's announcement to increase the purchase of long-term government bonds continues to unfold, pushing gold prices higher. As expected, gold rose to $4,600 last Friday and has shown no signs of slowing down. After closing in London at $4,632.24, spot gold continued to climb following a brief dip to $4,595.95 during early Asian trading today, before reaching a fresh recent high of $4,656.44.

In the short term, selling pressure on gold is likely to gradually intensify. Technically, the first key resistance level lies at $4,660, aligned with the Gann square angle; beyond that, the Fibonacci 100% extension target from March 23 stands at $4,735.06. On the data front, this Tuesday will bring the latest ADP employment change figures, while Wednesday’s release of July PCE inflation data is expected to draw extra market attention. Current forecasts anticipate year-on-year growth remaining steady at 3.3%. Additionally, the preliminary Q2 GDP reading will be released on the same day, along with a host of other economic data. At this sensitive moment, any single figure could easily become a catalyst for market speculation.

The most anticipated event remains the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium from August 27 to 29. Since new Federal Reserve Chair Waller has broken with past Fed chairmen by refraining from commenting on U.S. economic outlooks after policy meetings and omitting forward guidance in post-meeting statements, and given that U.S. inflation remained above 3% between March and July, market concerns over persistent inflation have led to a weaker dollar and rising bond yields. However, it is certain that Waller will signal a firm commitment to curbing inflation and bringing it back to 2% at the symposium. Judging by his words and actions, I expect him to hint at a possible rate hike in September—only then can long-term interest rates potentially ease after their recent surge.

Therefore, from a timing perspective, the current upward momentum in gold is unlikely to extend into next week. First, the two major technical resistances mentioned above pose challenges. Second, analyzing the price action since August 14, the third wave of the rally has already exceeded 2.618 times the length of the first wave, possibly even completing a five-wave structure and entering an ABC corrective phase. Conservatively speaking, gold may retreat to $4,494.13, with further declines potentially breaching $4,450. Nevertheless, support is expected to hold above $4,410, allowing for consolidation before resuming an upward trend.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.