Gold market analysis

Gold price likely to test $4,000 level again – July 30, 2026, 11:12 AM  
As expected, gold prices rebounded sharply. Following the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision yesterday, spot gold surged to a high of $4,109.26, then further climbed to $4,116.44 before sharply correcting and erasing all gains made after the rate announcement. As of early Asian trading today, the price has formed a narrowing triangle pattern awaiting a breakout. 

It should be noted that the FOMC decided by a 9-to-3 vote to keep the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, with three members supporting a 25-basis-point hike—the highest number of votes in favor of a rate increase since September 2016. Yet, gold prices rose instead of falling, which I believe was due to profit-taking and short covering. Typically, investors seeing three votes in favor of a rate hike would anticipate the Fed's earliest possible tightening in September, prompting them to buy dollars and sell foreign currencies and gold. 

However, gold prices had already been declining for some time before the interest rate decision was announced. The spot price dropped as low as $3,995.96 in early trading in New York. Since the start of this week, gold reached a high of $4,116.16 on Monday during Asian morning sessions, marking a cumulative drop of $120.2 so far this week. In other words, after returning to its previous level yesterday, gold has resumed its downward trajectory. With the price forming a narrowing triangle pattern and the rate decision increasing the likelihood of a September rate hike, the chances of breaking above $4,110 have diminished, while the probability of testing below $4,000 again has risen. 

Currently, only if the U.S. inflation rate drops below 3% will the FOMC members be likely to reconsider the timing of interest rate hikes or whether to maintain rates unchanged. Based on this, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,110 throughout August, with significantly increased volatility. As seen on the 5-minute chart, gold has broken below the ascending trendline of a narrowing triangle, suggesting further downside pressure during the day. The first key support level is at $4,043, and there remains a high probability of another test of the psychological $4,000 level. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.