Gold market analysis

Gold price fails to challenge 4,410 as trend weakens  
June 18, 2026, 10:56 AM  

Yesterday, gold prices sharply declined following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Although the central bank maintained rates unchanged as expected during this meeting, the dot plot indicated that committee members anticipate a 25-basis-point rate hike within this year. However, Fed Chair Wash did not provide any forecast regarding future interest rate movements. 

According to the latest economic forecasts released by officials, Federal Reserve members expect the median federal funds rate to rise to 3.8% this year, and to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2028. The core PCE inflation forecast was significantly raised from 2.7% in March to 3.6%, although next year's projection was only slightly adjusted from 2.2% to 2.3%. Additionally, officials anticipate the unemployment rate to be 4.3% this year, down from 4.4% in March, and to remain at 4.3% next year. The growth forecast was slightly lowered from 2.4% to 2.2% this year, while it is expected to stay at 2.3% in 2025. 

The Fed's hint at a 25-basis-point rate hike this year has become market consensus, yet the three major U.S. stock indices and gold prices sharply declined. I believe the reason lies in the fact that the post-meeting statement was brief and did not convey any dovish signals. Investors received no additional information on interest rates, which naturally increased uncertainty, leaving them to act solely based on the one key message—tending toward a 25-basis-point hike this year. 

Yesterday, the spot gold price plunged from near $4,380 to $4,219 within two hours, filling Monday's upward gap and wiping out long positions built during the week. It subsequently recovered gradually but encountered resistance near the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,326). The price failed to challenge $4,410, and also fell short of breaking above the 20-period SMA on the daily chart ($4,399), indicating weakening momentum in the short term. For now, we are measuring the recent move from yesterday’s high in New York using Fibonacci extensions, with the 100% extension level at $4,166.62 serving as the immediate downside target. On the daily chart, gold remains in a sideways consolidation phase, making a test of $4,000 unlikely. However, given the prevailing expectation of higher U.S. interest rates, any upward movement for gold faces significant resistance. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.