Gold market analysis

Gold price poised to test $4,410 this week  
June 17, 2026, 10:33 AM  

As markets await the U.S.-Iran agreement signing this Friday, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision tonight. Although a rate hold is most likely, investors should still pay close attention to the central bank's updated economic projections, including its outlook on inflation, employment, and GDP. If the Fed raises its inflation forecast, it would likely be interpreted as an increased chance of future rate hikes. This meeting marks the first time the new Fed Chair (Wash) will join former Chair (Powell) at a policy meeting. While Waller’s remarks are expected to draw attention, Powell’s views on the economic outlook will continue to influence the market significantly. 

According to Powell's view, the impact of U.S.-Iran conflict on inflation is temporary, and as both sides are now on the verge of ceasing hostilities, inflation should not further intensify but instead gradually ease. However, although the Federal Reserve decided at its April meeting to keep the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, one member suggested a 25-basis-point cut, three members recommended maintaining rates unchanged, but none supported including language in the statement indicating a bias toward easing. 

I believe many investors would think that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it remains uncertain whether oil supply can return to pre-conflict levels and bring inflation down. However, the United States has committed, following the signing of the memorandum of understanding, to exempt Iran's crude oil, petrochemicals, their derivatives, and all related services from sanctions until the sanctions are lifted. In other words, Iran will be free to sell its oil internationally, which will increase global oil supply. Overall, developments in U.S.-Iran relations are favorable for gold prices. 

On the hourly chart, spot gold prices gapped higher on Monday, broke above the previous descending channel bottom, and continued to rise, reaching a high of $4,369.19 before pulling back. Yesterday, prices peaked at $4,354.90, followed by a slight adjustment, forming a narrowing triangle pattern, awaiting further breakout. Currently, using Fibonacci extension levels on the daily chart, a 100% extension would push prices up to $4,814.38. The level around $4,310 appears to have been firmly held, with the next major resistance at $4,410. If gold breaks above this level following the Fed's interest rate decision, there is a very high probability it will challenge this target this week. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.