Gold market analysis

Gold price short-term rebound target at $4,680  
May 29, 2026, 11:07 AM  

Market reports indicate that U.S.-Iran negotiations have reached an agreement, but Iran has denied this. On the data front, the U.S. core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year in April—the highest level since November 2023. Although the increase was only 0.1 percentage points higher than in March, the Federal Reserve is certain not to cut interest rates in June. According to CME's FedWatch, market expectations for maintaining the federal funds rate unchanged stand at a high of 98.9%. Previously, the most likely scenario was a 25-basis-point hike in December, but now the probability of keeping rates steady at current levels has risen to 54.1%. I have consistently emphasized that raising interest rates cannot suppress inflation driven by sharply rising oil prices due to supply shortages. 

Gold prices reversed direction as expected yesterday, initially dropping to a low of $4,366.82 before recovering and surging after the release of the latest U.S. PCE data. Gold's role as an inflation hedge has returned, pushing spot gold higher to a peak of $4,516.68 during early New York trading, followed by a slight pullback. Today, in Asian morning trade, prices dipped to $4,489.16 before regaining momentum above the $4,500 level. On the daily chart, gold clearly showed a one-day reversal pattern yesterday, touching the lower boundary of a descending channel, suggesting a tendency for prices to move sideways with upward bias. If a deal between the U.S. and Iran is indeed reached, gold could once again test the $4,810 level. 

In the short term, the recent sideways range's top at around $4,582 serves as the first resistance level. The $4,660 mark represents the high point of the May 1st rebound and coincides with a Gann angle, making it the second major resistance. Further upward movement would face resistance at approximately $4,680, the upper boundary of the descending channel. Only a breakout above $4,773.83 could potentially break the downward trend. According to TD lines, once gold surpasses the TD descending trendline, the target for the upward move would be $4,680—the same level as the top of the descending channel. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.