Gold market analysis

Gold price at $4,500 marks key bullish-bearish divide  
Completed on 27/5/26 at 10:06  

Markets are awaiting the final outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as tensions resurface. According to a previous report by The Wall Street Journal, a Greek supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil passed through waterways off the coast of Oman under escort by the U.S. Navy. This escort operation was described as an "enhanced" version of the Freedom of Navigation program. However, the media later cited a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command stating that the United States had not resumed the Freedom of Navigation program, and the earlier report was inaccurate. Iran's Foreign Ministry responded by accusing the U.S. of violating ceasefire agreements and said it would respond accordingly, emphasizing it would never hesitate in defending its security. 

After reaching a high of $4,615.6 during the early Asian session yesterday, spot gold prices gradually declined and clearly formed a double-top pattern on the hourly chart. Prices eventually stabilized after dropping to $4,514.8 at the close of New York trading, then rebounded. In today's early Asian session, gold rose as high as $4,561.2, aligning closely with the previously predicted range of $4,500 to $4,660. It is expected that short-term price movements will continue to be primarily confined within this range. 

Of course, the key still lies in the details of the U.S.-Iran agreement. However, as long as the deal convinces the United States that Iran's nuclear threat has been eliminated and leads to a U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East—significantly reducing geopolitical risks—gold prices will once again be driven by interest rates, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance regaining market focus. Given that U.S. equities continue to rise steadily, with the Nasdaq repeatedly hitting new highs, even if Middle Eastern geopolitical risks decline, strong stock market performance leaves the Fed with little reason to cut interest rates. If the likelihood of rate hikes increases, gold prices are likely to remain under pressure in the second half of the year, potentially failing to hold above $4,000. Meanwhile, $4,500 could serve as a critical turning point for medium-term trends; should this level break, gold may embark on another wave of decline. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.