Gold market analysis

Gold Price Rally Expected to Continue into Early Next Week  
May 21, 2026, 9:53 AM  

A single comment from Trump triggered a rebound in gold prices. He stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have "entered the final stage," prompting investors to anticipate an imminent end to the military confrontation between the two sides since March. Crude oil futures for immediate delivery in New York sharply declined near the descending trendline of a narrowing triangle on the daily chart, breaking below $100 again. If the current ascending trendline around $95.5 is breached, prices are likely to gradually test $88 and then $80, eventually falling back below $70. In the short term, spot gold prices could accordingly challenge $4,773.83 and $4,889.7. 

Although the likelihood of a peaceful resolution to the recent military conflict between the U.S. and Iran appears high, Trump's reference to the "final phase" could imply an alternative meaning—resorting to further military action if no agreement is reached. The main issue remains the U.S. refusal to accept Iran's nuclear weapons development. In addition, Iran's plan to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and its demand for war reparations from the United States are also major obstacles hindering progress in negotiations, which investors should not take lightly. 

On the hourly chart, gold surged from a low of $4,467.15 to $4,537.27 yesterday during early New York trading, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. This move broke above both the 20SMA (currently at $4,485) and the 50SMA (currently around $4,520), with the two moving averages gradually forming a "golden cross" configuration. Gold subsequently consolidated slightly above $4,524 before rallying again in this morning's Asian session, reaching a temporary high of $4,570.85—nearly 38.2% below last Tuesday’s peak of $4,575.88. Unless U.S.-Iran talks collapse again over the coming days, gold is expected to rise toward $4,614 and potentially approach $4,660 before encountering significant selling pressure. In the short term, the rebound momentum is likely to extend into early next week. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.