Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Have a High Chance of Testing New Lows Intraday" 14/5/2026 11:06 Completed

The US PPI rose by 6% year-on-year in April, far exceeding the 4.3% increase in March, marking the largest increase since December 2022. The monthly increase also rapidly expanded from 0.2% to 1%. The core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, saw its year-on-year increase expand from 3.7% to 4.4%, indicating a rise in inflationary pressure in the US. As a result, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year is slim, but could an interest rate hike gradually become an option for monetary policy? Moreover, the sharp increase in US inflation in April was clearly influenced by the military conflict between the US and Iran. However, as the conflict between the two countries has eased and they have entered the negotiation stage, oil prices have dropped significantly, and the US has increased its oil production. The inflation triggered by the sharp rise in oil prices is expected to ease, and the conflict between the US and Iran is unlikely to persist. 

Trump arrived in Beijing yesterday to start a three-day visit to China. This morning, the leaders of the two countries met. Optimistic expectations for the trend of Sino-US relations and its impact on the current situation between the US and Iran have, to some extent, reduced market risk aversion. The performance of gold prices in the early Asian market today is obviously different from that in the past period. After reaching a high of $4,707 in the early morning, it dropped sharply and then remained sideways between $4,685 and $4,695. Although it later broke through the top of the sideways range, it encountered strong resistance at $4,700 and dropped rapidly again. However, it found support at $4,680 and rebounded. But from the 5-minute chart, it can be seen that gold prices have shown a clear downward channel pattern. 

From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the gold price is still in a large sideways market since May 6th. Yesterday's range narrowed to between $4,675 and $4,715. The sharp rise this morning followed by a pullback has led to an unfavorable pattern of a bearish engulfing candle, suggesting that $4,707 is likely to be the intraday high for gold. There is a greater possibility of a gradual decline. As such, $4,660 is expected to be tested again and is likely to be breached once more. Measured by the TD line, the target for the decline is $4,612. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.