Gold market analysis

Gold Price Expected to Hit Top and Fall Back on Thursday "4/5/2026 10:49 Completed
Since the development of the US Iran situation, I increasingly feel that Iran has fallen into the trap set by Trump!
Trump said that the United States will make every effort to ensure that other countries not involved in this incident can safely pass their ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and named the relevant operation "Operation Freedom". Starting this morning Middle East time, the US military will deploy missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea aircraft, multi domain unmanned operating systems, and 15000 officers and soldiers to participate in the relevant operation. However, Trump emphasized that only ships from countries that are not involved in the relevant events are protected. In other words, merchant ships related to Iran naturally cannot pass through this channel, and some European countries such as Spain that did not provide assistance to the United States during the military conflict between the United States and Iran may also not allow their merchant ships to pass through. In fact, since the outbreak of the incident, Iran has ultimately had to accept the US nuclear agreement plan, otherwise it will face further military strikes.

Affected by the news, June oil in New York fell as low as $99.11 this morning, but gradually regained lost ground and rose to a high of $102.33, filling the gap in the decline. However, it then fell again and temporarily hovered below $102. I believe that CNOOC will eventually return below $70 if Iran compromises, does that mean a significant increase in gold prices? Not necessarily, the significant drop in oil prices will quickly alleviate concerns about the overall price increase caused by oil prices. At that time, the market focus will return to the monetary policy of central banks around the world, especially the Federal Reserve in the United States.

The US Department of Labor will release its non farm payroll report for April this Friday. Currently, the market expects an overall increase of only 73000 non farm jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.7%. Private enterprises alone are expected to add 60000 jobs. Such numbers can serve as an excuse for the rise in gold prices. However, SPDR holdings have been continuously decreasing since March this year, reaching 1101.33 tons on March 2nd and continuing to decline. They have now decreased to 1035.77 tons last Friday, reflecting that investors have begun to take advantage of the high prices to profit.

The gold price rose to $4660 as expected last Friday but was hindered from falling back, and this morning it even fell below $4600. Due to the largest rebound in gold prices since April 29th, which was less than 50% of the largest decline since April 17th, it reflects a weak short-term rebound in gold prices, and there is a greater chance of testing $4510 in the future market. Measured by the TD line on the hourly chart, once the gold price falls below the TD uptrend, the downward target is approximately $4475. In addition, if the gold price maintains its current upward trend, it is expected to peak and fall back this Thursday, approaching $4660, which should be seen as a selling opportunity.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.