Gold market analysis

Gold price short-term rebound resistance at $4,650. 29/4/2026 10:47 Completed

Yesterday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ starting from May 1 this year, ending its nearly 60-year membership. This move is seen as a major blow to OPEC, especially in the context of the Iran war causing disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East. However, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei stated that this decision is based on the country's long-term strategy and economic vision, and is not an unexpected event. 

In fact, the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC is due to its production capacity being restricted, but not all members strictly adhere to the production capacity agreement, which has damaged its interests. The UAE has a huge potential for oil production, with its current capacity at about 4.8 million barrels per day and expected to reach 5 million barrels per day next year. However, the OPEC+ quota has long restricted its actual output to 3.4 million barrels per day. After leaving OPEC+, the UAE will have greater flexibility to adjust supply according to market demand.

The international oil price initially rose and then fell in response to the news. The New York oil price reached a high of $103.24 in the early Asian market this morning, but then turned downward, and the current price is $100.94. Apparently, the market initially bet on the wrong side, mistakenly believing that the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC+ would reduce the organization's production capacity. In fact, the UAE is pursuing greater production capacity, causing the oil price to turn from rising to falling. 

The inverse relationship between oil and gold has a greater impact on the gold price. The spot gold price broke through the support level of $4,650 of the flat downward triangle yesterday and dropped to $4,554 before rebounding. This morning in the early Asian session, it was seen at $4,610.34, but it was temporarily constrained by the 20SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4,597.22). However, the decision of the United Arab Emirates to stabilize oil prices in the long term rather than stimulate a continuous rise in oil prices is expected to have a short-term negative impact on the gold price. The spot gold price is expected to form a double bottom near $4,555 in the short term, but the bottom of the flat downward triangle at around $4,650 will become a resistance for the rebound. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.