Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at $5,000 Is Non-Negotiable" 10:44 16/2/2026 Completed 
The January CPI released by the US Department of Labor last Friday indicated that the pace of price increases has further slowed. The overall year-on-year increase dropped from 2.7% to 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The year-on-year increase in core CPI decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%, in line with expectations, but it was the smallest increase since March 2021. The data once again provided upward momentum for gold prices, which broke through the $5,000 mark again. In the late trading session in New York, it rose to $5,046.08, then pulled back slightly before making another push to the top, but the highest it reached was $5,045.86. 
Gold prices opened lower this morning with a gap, forming a small double top pattern on the 5-minute chart. The lowest point reached was $5,001.51, after which it stabilized and rebounded. For now, it seems that a dense area has formed at the top of $5,031. As the US markets are closed today for President's Day, gold prices are likely to remain in a narrow range above $5,000. The US will release the December PCE data this Friday. The market expects the year-on-year increase to expand from 2.8% to 2.9%, and the month-on-month increase to expand from 0.2% to 0.4%. As this is an important reference indicator used by the Federal Reserve to measure consumer spending and inflation, if the data reflects that Americans' spending power has increased due to interest rate cuts, thereby potentially increasing inflationary pressure driven by demand, and if the labor market also stabilizes or even strengthens, it could affect the authorities' monetary easing policy. 
A slowdown or even halt in the Fed's rate cuts is unfavorable for gold prices. Investors need to consider whether the sharp drop in gold prices at the end of January this year was due to large investors taking profits by selling at high levels or deciding to exit the market. If it was the latter, the rebound from the low point has approached 61.8% of the decline in late January (5140.37), which may be the end of the rebound. Measured by Fibonacci expansion, if the extent reaches 100%, the gold price could fall to $3927.90. In the short term, the $5000 mark is being tested again. If it is breached, the price is likely to fall to between $4960 and $4910 within the day, and $4810, which is at the 45-degree angle of the Gann Square, is a potential target for a further decline. 
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.