Gold market analysis

"Gold Prices Consolidate in a Narrowing Triangle, Awaiting a Breakout" 5/2/2026 10:39 Completed 

Yesterday, ADP in the United States announced that the number of jobs in private enterprises increased by 22,000 in January, which was less than the expected 46,000. The number of new jobs in December was also revised down from the initially reported 41,000 to 37,000. The data indicates that the U.S. labor market remains weak. Among them, small businesses saw no change, medium-sized businesses added 41,000 jobs, and large enterprises lost 18,000 jobs. Dr. Nela Richardson, the chief economist of ADP, pointed out that employment growth declined last year, with private enterprises adding 398,000 new jobs, less than the 771,000 in 2024. However, despite the continuous significant slowdown in employment growth over the past three years, salary growth has remained stable. 

The market expects that the number of non-farm jobs in the US, as announced by the Department of Labor on February 11, will increase by 7,200 in January, which is less than the 8,200 increase in December. However, the growth of employment positions in the US has dropped sharply from 53,600 in November last year to less than 10,000, which is quite unusual. This might be affected by Trump's immigration policy, government shutdown and weather conditions. The Department of Labor stated that it has been fully operational since February 4. I estimate that the growth of non-farm jobs in March will return to five figures or above. 

Gold prices rose close to $5,100 yesterday but were held back. For most of the day, they formed a large round top pattern. The poor ADP employment data only led to a slight rebound in gold prices, but they failed to break through the high of $5,092.31. Subsequently, they fluctuated and fell, eventually hitting a new intraday low of $4,855 before gradually recovering. This morning, they rose to a high of $5,023.81 before falling again and even breaking through $4,900, reaching a low of $4,896.2. From the hourly chart, the recent cumulative rebound in gold prices exceeded 50% of the earlier maximum decline, but it did not reach 61.8% before falling back. Since yesterday, the trend has been a narrowing triangle, indicating that gold prices are in a consolidation and waiting stage. A break above $5,023.81 or below $4,855 will be considered a breakthrough. The measured target for an upward breakthrough is $5,210, while the measured target for a downward breakthrough is $4,755. Judging from the current trend, the possibility of a downward breakthrough is greater. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.