Gold market analysis

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate below $4,500. 9/1/2026 10:35 Finalized
Yesterday, gold prices continued to be under pressure before the opening of the New York market. After reaching a high of $4,466.43 in the early Asian session, they fell repeatedly and hit a low of $4,407.54 before the opening of the New York market, then gradually rebounded. The trend was basically in line with expectations of fluctuating between $4,410 and $4,460. In the New York market, gold prices fluctuated upward, approaching $4,480 before being blocked and falling back. It is believed that this is related to Trump's remarks. The US military captured Venezuelan President Maduro last week and brought him to the US court for trial. Although it did not trigger obvious risk-aversion actions in the market, he later warned Colombian President Petro (Gustavo Petro) to "be careful", leading people to speculate that he is the next target to be captured. However, the main reason for the rise in gold prices is believed to be his hint that the US wants to "own" the entire Greenland. 

Currently, the United States already has a military base in Greenland - the Thule Air Base (Pituffik Space Base). However, Trump stated that the area is filled with Russian and Chinese ships, and from a national security perspective, the United States needs Greenland. On the other hand, Greenland is rich in rare earth minerals, which are crucial for the production of smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment. In response to Trump, Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said that the idea of the United States controlling Greenland is a fantasy, but they are willing to engage in dialogue and discussion through legitimate channels and in accordance with international law. 

In fact, the current situation is somewhat similar to the circumstances before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia believes that the continuous expansion of NATO poses a threat to its security. The United States could also use this as an excuse to occupy Greenland by force, and Greenland might even allow the United States to increase its military presence on the island. In short, I think it would be easy for the United States to take over Greenland, but it would surely face international condemnation. But what can be done? Only those with ulterior motives might take the opportunity to manipulate financial asset prices under the pretext of avoiding risks and make a profit. 

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the December non-farm payroll report tonight. If the change in non-farm employment is in line with expectations or slightly better, what reason could there be for gold to rally? This morning, spot gold reached a high of $4,484.46 before slightly pulling back. From the hourly chart, although the trend is still upward, it clearly encounters resistance near the previous high of $4,500.50. If it can rise above $4,500 and hold that level, the possibility of challenging $4,550 increases, but the chance of setting a new high is not high. Of course, another consideration is that the geopolitical risks triggered by the U.S. have risen recently, but gold has remained calm. Is it waiting for the non-farm payroll report as the last straw to launch a full-scale attack? However, regardless, prices reflect everything. There's no need to guess. I estimate that before the release of the non-farm payroll report, gold is likely to fluctuate below $4,500, and $4,410 remains a strong support level. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.