Weekly

Last week, the gold price continued to be influenced by the tariff war and reached a new historical high. Capital flowed into the gold market in a frenzy for hedging. After breaking through the $3,300 mark midweek, it rose by over $100 for the day. The highest point of the week was $3,357.82. The upward trend slowed down before the Good Friday long holiday. 

At the beginning of the week, the gold price opened lower as the US indicated over the weekend that tariffs on AI, computer and other technology products could be reduced, which temporarily eased the pressure of the tariff war. However, the White House later clarified that these products would be taxed according to a new product list instead of being exempted. The gold price has since stabilized after fluctuating. As the tariff war intensifies, the market has begun to project two important directions: one is the change in the supply chain, and the other is the change in the financial war. 

The last time the supply chain was disrupted was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to flight suspensions and a surge in prices, pushing US inflation to nearly 10%. At that time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and the gold price rose sharply by 30% from 1,500 to nearly 2,000 US dollars. The tariff war is bound to cause significant changes in the global supply chain. 

Moreover, the tariff war shows signs of spreading. The US is studying the new IPO process of Chinese enterprises, and even listed companies may be affected. The US's insistence on revitalizing its industry will surely backfire. Under the new order, countries may worry that the US and US dollar assets are not as reliable as before, and the US dollar and US bonds will also be affected. Driven by risk sentiment, funds seek safe havens, pushing the gold price to rise sharply above $3,300. 

On the other hand, Trump's constant pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and even rumors of firing Powell have also made the US dollar unstable. The upward trend of gold prices slowed slightly before the long holiday, but market sentiment remains quite unstable. Looking ahead to this week, the market may be relatively quiet at the beginning due to the Easter holiday, and there are not many economic data after the holiday. The market focus will continue to be on the negotiations of the tariff wars among various countries. The upward trend of gold prices is accompanied by overexcitement, and it is believed that the market will remain quite volatile this week. For market analysis, it is advisable to refer to each other.