Weekly

Gold rose for 8 consecutive weeks before giving up for a week, and then climbed again last week. As soon as the market opened at the beginning of the week, there was a surge of buying interest, continuing the rebound trend of the previous weekend. The gold price stabilized above 2850 in the early stage, and domestic demand fluctuated around the 2900 level multiple times this week, but all were able to maintain the support of 2880 and maintain the opportunity for upward momentum.

The focus of the week was on labor market data, with a small non farm payroll ADP limit of only 77000 in the middle of the week, significantly lower than expected. The market is concerned that the US economy may begin to slow down; Friday night's non farm payroll data also fell short of expectations, reporting 151000 people. The slowdown in labor market growth has made it even more urgent for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

The probability of interest rate cuts at the June Federal Reserve meeting has risen to 70%, and gold prices have returned to their 2930 week high, but unfortunately have not broken through. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish stance also scared the market at one point. He believes that whether to continue easing monetary policy needs to pay attention to more economic signals. This caused quite intense market changes that evening, with gold prices fluctuating rapidly and struggling to maintain balance. Eventually, they gave up on the US dollar and stabilized above 2900, holding the market.

The US dollar experienced a significant pullback last week, hitting its biggest weekly decline in nearly 16 years. The market still believes that US interest rates will fall in the long run, which has led to a decrease in the attractiveness of the US dollar. Looking ahead to this week, inflation data has significant implications for US interest rates. If CPI continues to rise, like Powell's remarks, the future direction of interest rates will be more hawkish. If inflation is moderate, the Federal Reserve will have the leverage to cut interest rates to support the economy. Let's take a look at the market situation and refer to each other.