Weekly

Last week, Carry trade came to an end, the global stock market rebounded, and the gold market that was once dragged down was able to rise again, and broke through a record high. History often repeats itself. After every small stock market disaster is dragged down, the tide of unpacking is over, and the funds re-anchor the gold and make the gold price hit a new high.

Last week, the market focused on the US inflation data. The PPI at the beginning of the week was lower than expected, which made the gold price eager to rise. However, it did not dare to break through before the 2480 mark. Waiting for the CPI data in the middle of the week, the CPI in the middle of the week also showed that inflation was moderate and did not worsen. However, the market treated it calmly. Interest rate futures even showed that the probability of interest rate in September dropped from more than 50% to 40%, and the gold price also retreated to the low level in the week. However, the overall increase was difficult to reverse. After the retreat, under the

Looking back at the past seven interest rate cuts in the United States, each period lasted for 26 months on average. The last two interest rate cuts were 2.4% and 5.1% from July 19 to April 20 and July 2007 to December 2008, respectively. During the two periods, the price of gold rose from 1398 to 1686, and from 650 to 880, with an increase of at least 20%, which supported the long-term upward trend of gold.

Looking ahead to this week, the Federal Reserve announced in the middle of the week that the record of last month's interest rate meeting and the Jackson Hole meeting at the weekend were the recent financial focus. After the last interest rate meeting, it was announced that the descriptive words of inflation and the labor market had been changed. This time, there must be a lot of information to lay out the interest rate reduction cycle. Although the Jackson Hole meeting started on Thursday, Powell was scheduled to give a speech on Friday, so there will be more information about the whereabouts of the Fed's interest rate before the weekend, which needs attention. For the market situation, please refer to each other.