Weekly

The market has confirmed that interest rate cuts will begin in September. Last week, gold caused all kinds of markets to surge. After the US presidential candidate Trump was shot, the market swept away different doubts one by one. In addition to confirming that Trump will be elected in November, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in September and sweep away all doubts. After that, funds poured into the market, and the gold and US stock markets reached new highs.

In the early two weeks, the market experienced a decline in CPI and a slowdown in the labor market revision, which can be said to have pushed the Fed to the road of reducing interest rates. The Fed has two major responsibilities, one is to control inflation, and the other is to maintain economic growth. If inflation has been controlled, it is necessary to ensure that the economy is improving. However, the slowdown in the labor market is an important indicator. The US economy cannot maintain a high interest rate for a long time, which is difficult for enterprises to bear and hinders the development of the labor market.

In the middle of the week, the gold price surged to 2483.68, a record high, and profit-taking occurred after the period. Trump said that the Fed should not cut interest rates before November, and the market took advantage of the situation to retreat. The price of gold fell further before the weekend, and fell below the 2400 mark on Friday night, with a high retreat of nearly $90. The weekly chart was broken and the technical trend was weak.

Looking forward to this week, the United States will release the most tight PCE inflation data of the Federal Reserve on Friday. Recently, inflation has dropped. After each data release, the price of gold can rise due to boosting the expectation of interest rate reduction. If PCE falls again, it is also expected to boost the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times at the end of the year. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.