Weekly

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Since the poor non-agricultural performance, the public began to get evidence of the weakening of the US economy, thus strengthening the confidence of starting to cut interest rates in September. At the beginning of this week, after the gold price stabilized at the psychological barrier of $2,300, it began to pile up and wait for a breakthrough opportunity. After two days of operation, the gold price has accumulated strength.
On Thursday night, the number of people applying for unemployment assistance for the first time in a week announced by the United States ushered in an opportunity, with a high figure of 231,000, the worst figure in the past six months, which once again reminded the market of the weakening unemployment rate in the previous week. More data cited the weakening of the labor market and the rise of gold prices, which continued to hit a new high in the week before the weekend, reaching a maximum of 2,378, and closed above 2,360, rising nearly 60 US dollars for the whole week.
The market began to worry about stagflation in the United States, that is, prices continued to rise, but the economy contracted, which would also affect the Fed's determination to cut interest rates, because high interest rates were needed to control inflation, but high interest rates would increase the cost of enterprises and thus suppress the labor market; On the contrary, cutting interest rates will help the labor market, but it will rekindle inflation and put the Fed in a dilemma.
Although one of the tasks of the Federal Reserve is to control inflation, the labor market is more political, because the immediate unemployment of the working population will put more pressure on the working class than the wage can't catch up with inflation. For the working class, it is better to scrimp and save than to lose their jobs. Especially in an election year, politicians need more time to stabilize the people's hearts. Therefore, the fall of the labor market will indeed increase the Fed's determination to speed up interest rate cuts.
Looking ahead to this week, there are PPI and CPI inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. If inflation falls, it will be easier to stimulate the gold market. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also gave a speech on Tuesday, which may continue his dovish argument. The market situation is a bit different, so let's refer to each other.