Weekly

October 3rd

Today's amplitude range

It is expected that the US interest rate hike cycle in the market will only cut interest rates in 2024. Inflation can't be solved by the central bank's policies alone. The supply chain is the key, but it is difficult to solve in the short term.

The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it paid attention to the intervention of central banks in foreign exchange, which caused some fluctuations in U.S. asset prices, indicating that the Federal Reserve is concerned about the global economy, but will still focus its policy on the United States.

Suggest the extreme leader who will stay on the road of raising interest rates. The attitude of the Federal Reserve will still affect the yield of the US dollar and its national debt, which is unfavorable to the bulls in the gold market, but the intervention of non-US dollar countries will also make it difficult for the US dollar exchange rate to outshine others.

It is expected that the price of gold will continue to fluctuate back and forth to get out of the new direction. In addition, non-agricultural data will be released this week, which will definitely bring greater volatility to the market.

Use the 50-week and 100-week lines of the 4-hour chart today to suggest the upper and lower volatility, that is, $1653 to $1674.

Influenced by the active interest rate increase policy of many central banks, the mood of venture investors has become negative. Although the State Council of China has successively introduced the policy of maintaining stability, it still can't stop the recent RMB capital withdrawal.

The RMB fell below the 7.2 mark against the US dollar, and the FOB price of RMB, which reflects the situation of foreign capital in the Mainland, fell to a record low, which shows that the "Run" culture continues, and the implementation of a fast and good world.

Last week, the Hang Seng Index hit an 11-year low for several consecutive days. Although the manufacturing index issued by the mainland authorities rebounded on Friday, the number crossed the 50 points of the dry and prosperous boundary, stimulating the Hang Seng Index to rise nearly 180 points.

However, the same statistics published by the business community were still lower than 50 points. The market questioned the water content of the numbers.

Hong Kong stocks once fell by 150 points, and closed slightly, at 17,222 points, and kept at 17,000. In a week's summary, it fell by 710 points or 3.96%.

Dragged by the virus pandemic, coupled with the war situation in Eastern Europe distorting supply and demand, the UK's domestic production has experienced negative growth in the past two years.

According to the gross domestic product (GDP) base, the core revenue and expenditure has dropped sharply from a slight surplus to a deficit of 8%.

However, the new foreign minister introduced more tax concessions when he came on stage, and the treasury will take on more debts. Investors are pessimistic about the UK's economic prospects.

On Monday, the pound fell to a record low against the US dollar. On the other hand, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the continued deterioration of inflation will damage the European economy, so stabilizing prices is the central bank's top priority.

The European Central Bank needs to send a strong signal that the inflation level is not allowed to differ from expectations. Lagarde reiterated that he would raise interest rates in the next few meetings.

The interest rate hike in Europe is expected to suppress the risk market. In a week, the DAX index in Germany has dropped by 1.36%; Paris CAC index fell by 0.38%; Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 1.78%.

Global inflation remains high, and central banks have to keep raising interest rates at the risk of economic recession. The interest rates of long-term and short-term bonds in the United States are upside down, reflecting the economic decline.

Yesterday, the yield of two-year bonds rose to 4.35%, and the yield of ten-year bonds also rose to 3.9%. The rising interest rate directly affects investors. In the post-epidemic era, the worsening inflation distorted the perception of the investment market.

The data that used to be good for the stock market was regarded as the reason to hit the market, that is, the fear that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates by a large margin.

Otherwise, on Friday, brainerd, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, showed his support for further interest rate hikes. The three major stock markets on Wall Street fell by more than 3% in a week, the Dow Jones index fell by 2.92%, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell by 2.85%.the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.01%.

On Monday, the pound fell to an all-time low against the US dollar. The Bank of England announced yesterday that it would stabilize the market and implement a temporary repurchase program for long-term bonds today.

The Bank of England is the country following the Bank of Japan's stated intention to intervene in the exchange rate.

With the global central banks scrambling to raise interest rates, it is understandable that the central banks of various countries set the exchange rate at a certain level to prevent the import of inflation, so as not to squander the efforts contributed by the interest rate hike, which may become the new normal.

In addition, since this year, the RMB has fallen by more than 10%, and the People's Bank of China has to intervene in the exchange rate, asking many state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars and buy RMB in the offshore market to curb the recent decline of RMB. Many countries around the world either followed the United States to raise interest rates, or intervened in foreign exchange, and the strong rhythm of the US dollar was forced to be disrupted.

Last week, the price of gold rose for four days in a row. Last week, the highest price of gold reached US$ 1,675.4, the lowest price dropped to US$ 1,659.7, and finally it closed at US$ 1,660.9. After a week, the price of gold rose by US$ 17.

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