Weekly

Yesterday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1,000, the biggest one-day drop in Hong Kong's stock market in six weeks.  After the market closed, Financial Secretary Chen Maobo announced that Hong Kong's GDP fell 8.9% year on year this year.

This is far more than the 1.5% decline previously predicted by the government, the worst since records began.
 
Investors are preparing for the negative factors brought about by the escalation of Sino-US tensions and Hong Kong's economic growth data in the first quarter. The stock market is not optimistic.
 
Asian stock markets generally fell while China's upper and lower markets did well, reflecting that economic activity and performance were still affected by the virus.
 
The Federal Reserve Bank of new york announced on its website on Monday that it plans to start buying qualified corporate bonds and ETF through the secondary market in early May.  Bloomberg estimates it could buy as much as $750 billion.

 
This is one of the more than 2 trillion U.S. dollar economic stimulus plans approved by the Federal Reserve Congress. In order to contain the spread of the virus, many enterprises in the United States have closed down. Over 30 million people have applied for unemployment relief in the past six weeks. Pessimistic estimates show that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach 20%.
 
However, orders for durable goods and factory orders both fell 16% and 10.3% respectively from March. This shows that despite the impact of the epidemic, the economic recovery is still a long way off, regardless of the gloomy outlook of service providers or consumers.
 
Nevertheless, the US stock market was led by technology stocks, with Nasdaq up 1.23%.  The US dollar also became the target, with the US dollar index rising to 99.5.
 
Gold rose slightly yesterday, closing at 1,700, with the highest at 1,715 and the lowest at 1,685.  It is worth noting that every time a sell order is pushed to around 1695, there is support for the purchase order, and 1700 becomes a watershed in the struggle between good and bad.

In other countries, unlimited QE will cause inflation and interest rates will remain low. Gold price has been supported in the medium and long term.  Coupled with the tense relationship between China and the United States, capital flows into the gold market to avoid risks have also become the reasons for good gold prices.
 
Bloomberg reported that OPEC Middle East countries excluding Iran's crude oil exports surged to their highest level since at least January 2017 in April.  This is because OPEC and its allies failed to reach an agreement in early March to deepen production cuts.

The consequences of the major oil-producing countries abandoning restrictions and increasing their output.
 
Bloomberg's analysis of oil tankers carrying nearly 43 million barrels of oil from OPEC Middle East countries has yet to show their final destination. Estimates of the flow to various countries may be revised. India was the most recent major market for Middle East oil.

However, imports declined slightly in April, but the observed exports of OPEC countries in the Persian Gulf (except Iran) to China surged to an unprecedented level of 4.76 million barrels per day in April.

Exports to China from Saudi Arabia and Iraq both soared to their highest levels since Bloomberg began tracking traffic in detail in early 2017.

 
China was the first country to adopt an epidemic prevention blockade against the new coronavirus epidemic and was also the first country to lift the blockade.  The recovery in economic activity coupled with cheap crude oil has stimulated Chinese people to buy, not excluding that a larger share will be shipped to China.
 
Crude oil futures rose to US$ 21.17, up 3.8%. As more countries gradually lifted restrictions on new viruses, oil prices gradually showed their value.

However, the guidelines of the Futures Exchange for a long period of time have also reduced investment risks and I believe negative oil prices will not recur.
 
The major oil-producing countries have already started to implement the cut-off agreement in May. Under the balance of supply and demand, it is inevitable that the oil price will return to a reasonable level. Goldman Sachs, the big bank, will raise the WTI crude oil price next year.

From $48.50 a barrel to $51.38 a barrel.
 

In short, there is at least room for oil prices to rise by US$ 25-30 in the coming year, equivalent to a rise in gold prices of 250-300.  But the difference is that oil is a necessity and has its practical value.

Gold acts as a safe haven in times of turmoil. After political and economic stability, the introduction of negative/zero interest rates by various countries will inevitably become a rising trend of gold in the future.
 
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