Gold market analysis

Non-Farm Data May Further Boost Gold Prices  
July 8, 2026, 10:38 AM  

Gold has clearly broken above the 50-day SMA on the daily chart (currently around $4,151), signaling a mid-term upward trend. The next potential targets are $4,417 and $4,528, while the 50-day SMA may act as a key support level during short-term corrections. In the near term, after a sharp rise, gold experienced a pullback—yesterday, spot gold dipped to $4,223.46 in mid-New York trading, down more than $80 from its earlier high. 

On the hourly chart, gold prices broke below the 20-period SMA (currently around 4254) near yesterday's New York midday session, then traded in a narrow range. This morning, during early Asian trading, prices rebounded to $4253.35 and moved above the 20-period SMA. Although gold has been declining from yesterday's high, forming a short-term bearish pattern, examining the trend since August 3 reveals an ascending flag formation. Notably, the cumulative decline from the peak is just slightly more than 23.6% of the prior upward move, falling short even of the 38.2% level. Therefore, this correction is likely only a short-term adjustment rather than a significant weakening trend. 

Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the July non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 88,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-on-month. Only a significant increase in employment—such as 150,000 or more—combined with a further decline in the unemployment rate, could reignite market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if job growth remains below 100,000, the unemployment rate stays unchanged or even rises, and interest rates are expected to remain stable or gradually trend lower, gold is likely to strengthen steadily. Under such conditions, gold could rise toward $4,365 and $4,400, with a potential pullback expected if it reaches $4,508. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.