Gold market analysis

Gold Prices Expected to Launch a Major Rebound Wave  
October 7, 2026, 11:07 AM  

Gold prices continue to rise, reflecting a gradual easing of market concerns over the U.S.-Iran situation. Investors are once again positioning themselves according to their own needs. Trump's inconsistent stance also makes investors hesitant to get too close—particularly since he believes that a large-scale, prolonged war between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely, implying that Middle East tensions will not severely impact financial markets. Moreover, as we move into the second half of the year, Trump must begin preparing for the midterm elections. Although I believe he no longer cares about winning or losing, successfully brokering a nuclear deal with Iran would greatly help Republicans maintain control of Congress. 

Gold prices have shown stronger performance than expected. After breaking above $4,110 during yesterday's early New York session, spot gold has held firmly above that level. This morning in the early Asian trading session, it briefly dipped to $4,109 before quickly recovering and returning above $4,110. On the hourly chart, gold reached a high of $4,138.38 last night—representing a rebound from Wednesday evening’s low of $4,022, which already exceeds 61.8% of Monday’s maximum decline ($4,133.63). Following yesterday’s retest above $4,110, gold spent most of the day consolidating, suggesting it is now poised for a further upward breakout. 

From the daily chart, gold prices have begun to form a wave pattern with each successive wave higher than the previous. Recently, gold has been fluctuating around the 20SMA (currently at approximately 4132), marking the first time since breaking below this level on March 12th that it has consistently tested the 20SMA. Currently, it appears that a major rebound is imminent, with the 50SMA (currently at around 4353) as the next key target. A breakout above this level is highly likely, with the initial upside target at $4,417. Once gold stabilizes above $4,410, the next targets will be $4,660 and $4,735. Investors should therefore pay close attention—once gold breaks above the 20SMA with a strong bullish candlestick, it will signal the start of a significant upward rally. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.