Gold market analysis

Gold prices still have a high chance of short-term recovery  
Completed on 8/7/2026 at 10:51  

Yesterday, gold prices fluctuated. After touching a low of $4,117 near the start of European trading, spot gold rebounded and briefly rose to $4,180 in early New York trading. However, it subsequently declined steadily, breaching the $4,100 level and falling as low as $4,092. Although prices recovered later, they faced resistance after reaching a high of $4,126.6 this morning. Technically, gold remains clearly constrained by yesterday's low point before European market opening. 

As seen on the hourly chart, gold's cumulative decline since July 6 has exceeded 38.2% of its maximum gain since July 1, and is just about $11 away from a 50% retracement level. Therefore, a strong rebound is expected today, with gold likely to retest the $4,200 level in the remainder of this week. Conversely, if gold continues its sideways downtrend, it may briefly find support and rebound near $4,080 or $4,050. For now, gold is expected to remain above $4,100 in short-term fluctuations. 

On the daily chart, gold closed below the 20SMA (4143) yesterday, failing to remain above this level for three consecutive trading days. A move above $4202.67 would be required to confirm an upward reversal. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate around the 20SMA, awaiting a breakout opportunity. Additionally, with the daily chart showing divergence as the 9RSI has declined into severely oversold territory, the likelihood of a bullish turn is relatively high. If gold tests but holds above the June 30 low of $3944 in the near term and shows strong reversal signals, a short-term recovery can be anticipated. This could lead to further upward momentum, with resistance likely emerging around $4410. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.