Gold market analysis

Gold price rebound continues, seen at $4,220  
June 26, 2026, 10:23 AM  

Yesterday, the U.S. released May PCE data, with core PCE rising 3.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month—both in line with expectations. Overall PCE increased 4.1% year-on-year, matching forecasts but higher than April's 3.8%, while the monthly rise of 0.4% matched April's level but fell short of the expected 0.5%. The data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates, even if it does not raise them. 

Additionally, the U.S. released the final GDP figure for the first quarter of this year, showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate increase of 2.1%, significantly above the expected 1.6%. According to detailed data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the strong GDP growth in the first quarter was primarily driven by substantial increases in private investment and federal government spending, which rose 7.9% and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter respectively (compared to increases of 2.3% and a decline of 5.6% in the fourth quarter of last year). In contrast, personal consumption expenditures slowed markedly from 1.9% to 0.5%. 

In private investment, the AI industry has clearly emerged as a major driver of economic growth, with spending rising 13.8% (compared to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of last year), while equipment investment also surged by 15.8% (up from 4.3% in the fourth quarter of last year). However, the U.S. took military action against Iran in April, and the impact of this will be reflected in second-quarter GDP. 

Gold prices have largely moved in line with expectations. Yesterday, spot gold indeed did not fall below Wednesday's low and surged sharply following the release of U.S. PCE data that met market forecasts, peaking at $4,044.31 during New York midday trading before gradually retreating. On the hourly chart, gold has been declining closely along the 50SMA (currently around $4,036) since yesterday's high, forming a rising flag pattern suggesting a potential breakout higher. There is a very high probability that gold will rise to the $4,060 level today. Investors may further use Fibonacci extension levels based on the trend since June 18 to project short-term price targets: a 38.2% rebound from the recent decline could bring gold to $4,120.77; a 50% rebound to $4,170.73; and a 61.8% rebound to $4,220.69. 

From the Gann Square perspective, $4,110 and $4,210 are positioned at 135-degree and 180-degree angles respectively, with $4,210 offering relatively stronger resistance. Therefore, it is temporarily inferred that gold prices may rebound to approximately 61.8% of the previous maximum decline, reaching $4,220.69, before encountering significant resistance. If gold rebounds only to around $4,120.77 and then faces strong resistance followed by a sharp pullback, this would indicate weak upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of further lows in the near future. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.