Gold market analysis

Gold prices expected to remain above 4,500 with fluctuations  
Completed on May 26, 2026, 09:37  

U.S.-Iran negotiations are moving toward a deal. According to sources, the United States and Iran are discussing reopening the Strait of Hormuz approximately 30 days after reaching an agreement to end hostilities. Additionally, following the agreement, Iran will clear mines from relevant waters within 30 days. The ceasefire agreement reached in early April will also be extended by 60 days, during which both sides will negotiate over Iran's nuclear program. 

Additionally, it was reported that Iran agreed to abandon its stockpile of enriched uranium, though details on how it will be handled remain unclear (Trump had requested either transfer to the United States or on-site destruction under IAEA supervision). The two sides also reached an understanding regarding Iran's frozen assets, and the agreement may be announced tomorrow. 

The news caused international oil prices to gap lower on Monday in Asian trading, with West Texas Intermediate crude briefly falling below $90, hitting a low of $89.43 before recovering slightly and holding just above $90 in early Asian session this morning. Gold prices opened higher on Monday, with spot gold approaching $4,589—$70 above Friday's closing level—and reached as high as $4,580.40 in the early part of the Asian session, but quickly retreated to around $4,540, stabilizing there. Technically, a double top has formed on the hourly chart. 

Although a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is likely, the key issues—uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons—remain unresolved. Without a clear agreement, financial markets could still face potential impacts. Conversely, even if hostilities end and oil prices continue to decline, gold may not necessarily rise steadily, as capital could shift back into risk assets, and the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in the near term. In the short term, gold is expected to hold above $4,500 with volatility, while $4,660 again becomes a strong resistance level. Until the Fed sends a clear signal of resuming rate cuts, it will be difficult for gold to challenge $4,800. On the daily chart, gold has formed a flat-bottomed descending triangle, with $4,773.83 serving as a strong resistance. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.