Weekly

January 15 th

Today's volatility range:

The strength of the dollar completely dominates the rise and fall of gold prices, but Powell's dovish remarks can become evidence that the dollar is no longer strong, which is beneficial to the gold market. It is expected that it will still fluctuate today, and the suggested volatility is between US$ 1844 and US$ 1870.

After the introduction of the vaccine, the new crown virus is still raging around the world, and the situation in Europe is even more severe. Due to the stronger transmission of the British variant virus, the number of new cases in the UK is approaching 50,000 every day; The number of new deaths in Germany has increased by more than 1,000, reaching a historical high.

Germany is considering extending the blockade period; France added 21,228 confirmed cases in a single day; There are more than 21,000 confirmed cases in a single day in France. The French government, for fear of dragging down the medical system, announced a national curfew from Saturday. European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke earlier.

It is believed that this year's prospects are optimistic, the epidemic situation will be gradually controlled due to the vaccination plan, and the blockade measures can be lifted from the second quarter of this year. It is predicted that the economic growth of Yuanqu in 2021 will be 3.9%. Influenced by the speech, the three major European stock markets made a comprehensive success yesterday.

The German DAX index rose by 0.35%; French CAC index rose by 0.33%; Britain's FTSE 100 Index trailed by 0.84%.

In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the British city closure measures have dealt a great blow to the economy. In addition, after the Brexit, the UK has directly competed with the Eurozone. The negative interest rate policy of the European Central Bank will put pressure on the UK interest rate policy. Earlier, the President of the Bank of England said in his speech when discussing the interest rate policy.

We should consider the bank's bearing capacity and keep cooperating with the bank in research. It is widely estimated that the Bank of England will have the opportunity to reduce the current 0.1% official interest rate to below zero when the interest rate is decided in May this year, and the British pound is soft against the US dollar.

Yesterday, US President-elect Biden announced a stimulus plan of 2 trillion US dollars. It is reported that this plan will be divided into two accompanying parts; Among them, $350 billion is local aid, and another $160 billion is vaccine and testing expenses. Yesterday, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Bowie, also spoke.

He said that he would not withdraw from the market in the short term, and reiterated that he would not raise interest rates in the short term before the US economy reached its inflation and employment targets. Influenced by Powell's dovish remarks, the US dollar exchange rate immediately softened. In terms of US data, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was 965,000, which was worse than the expected 795,000.

After the data was released, the price of gold was stimulated to rise to $1,858 per ounce, but the market worried that the huge stimulus plan would push the interest rate of US Treasury bonds and limit the price of gold from rising yesterday, and finally closed at $1,846 per ounce, with a slight increase of $1.

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