Gold market analysis

"Gold price is expected to fluctuate below $4,753 within the day" 13/4/2026 10:54 Finalized 

The US-Iran negotiations ended in failure as expected. It was reported that the two sides failed to reach an agreement on three main issues - the US demanded that Iran share the revenue it earns in the Strait of Hormuz equally (it is unknown whether it is with the US or other affected Middle Eastern countries); the US demanded that Iran hand over all uranium with a concentration of 60% or higher; and Iran cannot enrich uranium for the next 20 years. After the negotiations broke down, the US announced that it would blockade all Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf starting at 10 p.m. Hong Kong time. 

Iran has stated that only non-military vessels are allowed to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. Any military vessel passing through the strait will be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will be met with a strong response from the country's navy. As the Strait of Hormuz lies between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, US warships must pass through it to enter the Persian Gulf. If the US military proceeds with its plan to enter the Persian Gulf tonight, it is highly likely that a military conflict will break out with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the financial market is expected to be hit again. 

This morning, the spread of New York crude oil rose sharply, reaching a high of $105. The spot gold price opened lower at $4,671.65, but gradually recouped its losses and has since risen above the $4,700 level, reaching a high of $4,795.77. This reflects market speculation that Trump will once again suspend military operations before the deadline. From the daily chart, the gold price broke through the 20-day SMA ($4,741.5) last Wednesday and has remained above this line since then. The 50-day SMA ($4,900) is now close to the 61.8% retracement level of the decline since March 2nd at $4,914.86, and has become a short-term strong resistance for the gold price. 

Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately $258 between the 20SMA and 50SMA on the daily chart in the short term. The intraday trend of gold prices has temporarily encountered resistance at the neck line of the small double top at $4731 on the hourly chart, increasing the possibility of gold prices testing the low of $4633.57 again. However, $4660 is a strong support level at the Gann angle, and it is estimated that a small double bottom will form around this level. Before the US military takes action tonight, it is expected that gold prices will fluctuate repeatedly below $4731. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.