Weekly

Inflationary pressure

2020-12-21

Today's volatility range:


The Brexit negotiations are now blocked, which increases the risk aversion. Last week, the US dollar hit a two-and-a-half-year low, which stimulated the gold price. The long-awaited US epidemic assistance program has reached an agreement, the US dollar will continue to weaken, and the gold price will benefit again.

Today's major volatility is expected to be between $1870 and $1900.

I don't know if you all share the same feeling. During the time when the economy was depressed due to the pneumonia pandemic, the daily expenditure on living has not decreased, but has increased. The housing problem in Hong Kong is more complicated.

But no one should say that house prices or rents are cheap in Hong Kong, right? In fact, according to the latest announcement of the Census and Statistics Department, except for clothes and shoes, excluding various government stickers, the general consumer price still increased by 0.2% over the previous year;

The Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce predicts that the inflation rate will be 0.3% this year, and the Chamber of Commerce also predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 7% by the end of this year, which will force the SARS period in 2003. It can be said that the rising number of people will add to the burden! Hong Kong is a typical export-oriented economy,

It is vulnerable to external factors. Recently, the US dollar has been falling, and the US dollar is pegged to the US dollar, which makes Hong Kong prone to import inflation.


Last week, many countries released interest rate decision results, including Britain, the United States, Japan and Switzerland. Australia and the European Central Bank announced that interest rates would remain unchanged as early as one week. Apart from the agreement on interest rates, central banks all issued a message at the same time.

That is, pay close attention to the economic trend, and increase the scale of purchasing government bonds when necessary, that is, increase the quantitative easing policy. What is hateful is that Hong Kong cannot print more silver paper to stimulate the economy like other countries.

However, Hong Kong's export figures based on "Made in China" are expected to go from bad to worse, and it can only bear the consequences of the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. The global epidemic has hit the national economy, and many countries have printed silver paper to try to solve the difficulties. According to statistics, the four central banks,

Including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, have invested 5.6 trillion U.S. dollars in quantitative easing this year. This figure does not include a mysterious country, because its policies are relatively opaque.

Therefore, the figures cannot be said for the time being, but it is expected that the quantity and breadth will not be lower than the average value of these four countries. Under the effect of global currency depreciation, investors can't just watch the capital be eroded by inflation.

Therefore, the leading economies of stock markets in many countries have not returned to the level before the epidemic, while the US stock market is stronger, and the three major indexes have reached a record high during the epidemic.

And gold is not far behind, and it hit a record high of $2,075 per ounce in August this year. Looking back briefly on last week's Brexit agreement, the negotiations between the two sides have stalled because of fishing. British Prime Minister Johnson said that as long as there is a chance to reach a trade agreement,

The British side will continue to negotiate, but the British side must first ensure the right to fish in the sea area. Banier, the chief negotiator of the European Union, said that there is little time left for negotiations between Britain and Europe, and there is limited room for negotiations.

The EU may retaliate by restricting British fish products from entering the European market. The epidemic situation has continued to deteriorate, and the virus has mutated, and its infectivity has increased by 70%. The UK recorded a daily high of 36,000 people infected with the virus.

The mayor of London described it as the worst year in World War II. The United States has also hit a single-day high of more than 260,000 infection cases for two consecutive days. The only good news is that the House of Representatives and the Senate issued a joint statement on Sunday local time in the United States.

He said that the first $900 billion epidemic stimulus bill has reached an agreement with each other, and the largest economic relief bill in American history will be reviewed and passed as soon as possible. Last week, the US dollar hit a two-and-a-half-year low, which stimulated the gold price. The gold price finally closed at 1881 US dollars per ounce.

Up 42 dollars from last week.


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