Weekly

Market dynamics

2020-12-18

Today's volatility range:


The Brexit negotiations were blocked, which increased the risk aversion. However, the US dollar was weak, investors chased gold, and the market hoped that the epidemic assistance program would soon be passed. The gold price rose by 21 dollars again yesterday, and this week it has accumulated an increase of 47 dollars.

There may be a correction today, and the main volatility is expected to be between 1875 and 1888 US dollars today.

Yesterday, two non-Euro currency countries in Europe announced the results of interest rate decision. The Swiss National Bank maintained a negative interest rate policy, and the interest rate remained unchanged at negative 0.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Swiss National Bank continues to implement the global minimum interest rate monetary policy;

In this regard, the United States listed Switzerland as a currency manipulator earlier, but the Swiss National Bank responded that the Swiss franc was overvalued because the new pneumonia epidemic severely hit the Swiss economy, and the central bank would take action in the foreign exchange market when necessary.

The United States threatened the market power, and the Swiss franc hovered at a one-year high against the US dollar yesterday.


In the UK, the Bank of England Committee unanimously decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.1% and maintain the bond buying program at 895 billion pounds, all in line with market expectations. The Bank of England issued a statement after the meeting, saying that vaccinating citizens may reduce the downside risks to the economic outlook.

However, the UK will not tighten monetary policy until there is good evidence of progress, but once the prospects weaken, the Committee is ready to take any necessary additional actions to achieve its goals. Members added that the UK's economic prospects depend not only on the control of the COVID-19 outbreak,

It also involves the new trade agreement between EU and UK and the subsequent transitional arrangements. The transition period from Brexit to the real death line expired at the end of the year, but the negotiations were blocked on the fishery issue. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen again.

Discuss the negotiation progress of the trade agreement between Britain and Europe, but after the meeting, both sides showed pessimistic remarks. British Prime Minister Johnson said that unless the EU's position changes significantly, it is extremely impossible to reach an agreement. Ursula von der Leyen said that substantial progress has been made in the negotiations.

However, there are still major differences that need to be bridged, especially on the fishery issue, which is described as very challenging. The major European stock markets developed individually, and the German DAX index rose by 0.87%; French CAC index rose by 0.03%; Britain's FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.35% due to the worsening of the epidemic.


Yesterday, the United States announced that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was 885,000, which was worse than expected, and it also rose for the third consecutive week. Another data was the Philadelphia Federal Manufacturing Index, which announced that the number was 11.1 points, which was 20 points worse than expected.

However, the optimism that the market's epidemic aid program is about to be passed overshadows the economic data. The new york stock market all hit a new high after the market, and the Dow Jones index rose by 0.49%; The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose by 0.58%; Nasdaq index rose 0.84%.

The market hopes that the epidemic assistance program will soon be passed, and the US dollar continues to be sluggish. The US dollar index falls below the 90-point mark, with the lowest falling to 89.73 points. The gold price rose all the way yesterday, breaking the resistance of 1,870 US dollars per ounce and then turning sharply, with the highest approaching 1,896 US dollars per ounce.

It closed at $1886 per ounce, up $21.

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